Week 17 of the NFL schedule is jam-packed. Not only did we get two games on Wednesday, but we also had our typical Thursday Night Football game, combined with THREE Saturday games as well as a typical Sunday and Monday slate. Yes, that is five days of NFL football for those counting at home. But what about Friday? Has the NFL decided to try and conquer another day of the week?
NFL’s Week 17 Schedule Provides No Rest for the Wicked
So, are there any NFL games today? Surprisingly enough, no. Friday is actually a day off for the NFL. However, don’t worry, there are a whopping five bowl games in college football if it is football you are looking for.
Disappointed? Well, don’t be. There are three NFL games being played on Saturday this week.
Chargers at Patriots Preview
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: Thursday’s win was the second time in 32 days in which the Chargers won a game in which they allowed 27+ points and lost the turnover battle — the other 31 teams had done it five times up to that point.
QB: Justin Herbert’s aggression seems to be fading. After posting a 10.1-yard average depth of throw against the Chiefs in Week 14 (his fourth double-digit effort of the season), his rate checked in at 8.2 yards in Week 15 against the Buccaneers and 6.8 in Thursday’s win over the Broncos.
Offense: Los Angeles averaged a season-high 3.1 points per possession on Thursday night, punting on just 27.3% of their possessions (their fourth game this season with a sub-30% punt rate).
Defense: The Chargers eventually forced a punt after failing to do so on 16 straight drives — that’s the longest streak this season and one shy of matching the longest in franchise history.
Fantasy: Gus Edwards ran 14 times for 68 yards (43 on a single carry) and two touchdowns on Thursday night — that was the sixth instance in which a running back had two rushing touchdowns on under 15 carries since the beginning of November — teammate J.K. Dobbins was responsible for two of the other five.
New England Patriots
Team: New England is in the midst of its second five-game losing streak of the season – from 2010-17, they didn’t lose five games in a single regular season.
QB: Drake Maye has completed 15 of 17 third-down passes over his past three games (88.2%).
Offense: The Patriots scored on 30% of their drives against the Bills on Sunday, matching their highest mark of the season.
Defense: New England’s defense came to play on Sunday, holding the Bills to just 4-of-11 on third downs (in their two previous games, they allowed a 57.7% conversion rate).
Fantasy: On his 238 touches this season, Rhamondre Stevenson has as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns (seven) and as many fumbles lost as touches gaining 30+ yards (three).
Chargers vs. Patriots Betting Lines and Picks
- Moneyline: Chargers -230; Patriots +190
- Total: 43
This is a horrible spot for the Los Angeles Chargers. Heading into a cold Foxborough, Mass., for a 10 a.m. body clock game is as bad as it gets for a West Coast team that lives in a warm climate and plays their home games in a dome.
The metrics tell you that the Chargers should win comfortably, but the intangibles of the game tell you that it could be much closer than the raw numbers suggest.
Los Angeles is slightly better offensively and significantly better defensively and has similar special teams and SOS metrics to the New England Patriots. They are also coming off extra rest, having played last Thursday, and know that a win clinches a playoff spot, allowing them some rest and recuperation in Week 18.
The cold weather and early kickoff give me pause, and I would prefer to only be laying a touchdown. Still, the Chargers are on the right side here.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Patriots 17
Pick: Chargers -4.5
Broncos at Bengals Preview
Denver Broncos
Team: Christmas Eve marks 100 days since a QB not named Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Justin Herbert defeated the Broncos.
Offense: In Weeks 8-13, Denver converted 50.6% of its third downs, a rate that has plummeted to 36.7% over the past two weeks (11-of-30).
Defense: The Broncos have posted a sub-28% blitz rate six times this season — they’ve done it in five of their past six games.
Fantasy: Marvin Mims Jr. has a catch of more than 35 yards in four of his past five games — if you’re swinging for the fences, a matchup with a bottom-10 defense in terms of completions and touchdown rate on balls thrown 10+ yards downfield is a decent place to look.
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have a 3+ game win streak in December (or later) in four straight seasons.
QB: You know that Joe Burrow is the first ever with 250 passing yards and three passing TDs in seven straight — extend his numbers from those games for a full season, and he’s posting a 5,430-yard, 58-TD season (for reference, 2007 Tom Brady’s 17-game pace: 5,106 yards and 53 TDs.
Offense: Cincinnati scored on “just” 36.4% of its drives over the weekend, their lowest rate since Week 8.
Defense: Cincinnati has allowed under 1.5 points per possession three times this season – two of which have come against the Browns.
Fantasy: Ja’Marr Chase is seeking a seventh straight game with 18+ PPR points. Since 2013, only twice (Cooper Kupp in 2021 and Davante Adams in 2020) has a receiver had a longer such streak in a single season.
Broncos vs. Bengals Betting Lines and Picks
- Moneyline: Broncos +140; Bengals -166
- Total: 48.5
This could easily be the best game of the entire week, with both teams having something to play for and the ability to step up in big moments.
This is a typical strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness matchup when it comes to offensive and defensive matchups. However, the Denver Broncos have had a couple of defensive stumbles recently, which raises some red flags against an offense like the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Broncos are the better team, and Cincinnati’s weather will not phase them. However, Denver’s loss to the Chargers raised some eyebrows. The Bengals are a team that will fight until the very end, so Denver had better be prepared. We’ve seen the Broncos’ defense wilt under the pressure of good offenses at times this year and even sometimes against bad ones.
This game feels like it comes down to the final possession, and I tend to avoid picking a side on those. However, they also tend to have shootout vibes, and a 30-27 type game is very much in the realm of possible outcomes here.
I’m taking the over here, as well as looking to tease the Broncos up to +9 and the total down to 42.5.
Prediction: Bengals 30, Broncos 27
Pick: Over 48.5 and a teaser of Broncos +9 and Over 42.5
Cardinals at Rams Preview
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Arizona is 4-15 and has been outscored by 152 points (492-340) in their past 19 road games.
QB: Kyler Murray doesn’t have more touchdown passes than interceptions in a game since doing so against the Jets in Week 10 (Arizona has lost four of five games over that stretch).
Offense: James Conner has consecutive games with a 40+ yard carry – he previously had one such run in his career with the Cardinals (794 rush attempts).
Defense: The Cardinals allowed the Panthers to average 3.0 points per drive on Sunday – Arizona falls to 1-6 this season when allowing at least 2.0 points per drive.
Fantasy: Conner is the first RB aged 29 or older with 100 rush yards, a rush TD, and 25 receiving yards in consecutive games since Latavius Murray (2019) – he joined this list in the first half last week against the Panthers.
Los Angeles Rams
Team: The Rams have won eight of 10 games after a 1-4 start, but they’ve only outscored their opponents by 27 points during that run (235-20)
QB: Matthew Stafford has thrown one touchdown pass on 46 attempts over his past two games (one TD toss every 11.7 attempts over his previous four games).
Offense: Los Angeles has won four straight games, but they’ve been walking on thin ice over their past two by converting just two of their eight red-zone trips into TDs.
Defense: Opponents have converted just eight of 18 red-zone trips into touchdowns against the Rams over their past six games.
Fantasy: Kyren Williams has a league-high 15 games with 20+ carries since the beginning of last season.
Cardinals vs. Rams Betting Picks
- Moneyline: Cardinals +200; Rams -245
- Total: 49
The Arizona Cardinals’ playoff hopes are dead, which significantly changes this game’s complexion. No longer is this a game with playoff implications on both sides, so it’s tough to know how the Cardinals may react.
Arizona absolutely annihilated the Los Angeles Rams in the last matchup, but that was a very different Rams team in the first month of the season.
These are two very evenly matched teams on paper. They rank identically across the board, with the only real advantage for the Cardinals on special teams. That makes this spread feel a touch too high, especially given that the Rams do not have a particularly great home-field advantage.
The Cardinals’ lack of motivation makes this a really tough game to judge. An offensive explosion is not out of the question, though, so taking the over is the way to play this one. A nice parlay/teaser here might be to combine the Rams’ moneyline with an over in the low 40s.
Prediction: Rams 30, Cardinals 27
Pick: Over 49