The Kansas City Chiefs have a first-round bye due to having finished with the best record in the AFC. They will continue with a matchup next week as they continue their quest for a three-peat and win their third consecutive Super Bowl title.
Super Bowl Champions Have a First-Round Bye
The Chiefs will play on either January 18 or 19 and their opponent will be determined this weekend. The only thing we know now is the Chiefs will play every playoff game, up to the Super Bowl, at home as they also secured home-field advantage for as long as they are alive in the playoffs.
- Matchup: Chiefs vs. TBD
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 18 / Sunday, Jan. 19
- Time: TBD
- TV Channel: TBD
- Live Stream: Fubo (U.S.)
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes said it was important to have this weekend off as he and his wife Brittany are about to give birth to another child. Additionally, the Chiefs have been battling injuries, and the week off will give them more time to get healthy.
“I think we got better as, obviously, the games went on. The guys, they’re mentally tough and they’re physically tough, and we played some really good football teams, some hard-fought battles, and the guys came away with three wins. Getting the No. 1 seed is important, it’s like winning a playoff game, and so I was happy to get that done” Mahomes said.
“It’s just going to be nice getting guys healthy,” Mahomes said. “This was the earliest bye I’ve ever had, just in general. To kind of have had this grind of whatever it is, I think we had a bye on Week 6, so it’s like almost 10 weeks of just football and grinding this short schedule at the very end of the year.
We had some guys banged up, and to get them back healthy now, we’ll see how Week 18 goes and who plays and who doesn’t play, that’s up to coach, but even getting this little break, getting back healthy, and then getting ourselves ready to go for the playoffs, it was super important, especially with the guys we have banged -up.”
Who Could the Chiefs Play Next?
The Chiefs have four potential opponents out of the six playing on Wild Card Weekend: the Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Denver Broncos. They cannot face either the Buffalo Bills or the Baltimore Ravens until the AFC Championship Game at the earliest.
MORE: Exploring All Chiefs Playoff Scenarios
The NFL playoff bracket reseeds on each side after each round. Essentially, that means the highest remaining seed will always face the lowest remaining seed. As the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs are guaranteed to be the highest-remaining seed in the AFC and, therefore, will always play the lowest remaining seed in the Divisional Round.
Offense and Defense Grades
The Kansas City Chiefs are the target of more criticism than praise because they aren’t as explosive as our eyes want them to be. But championships aren’t won through highlights, and the Chiefs were a top-10 offense before punting in Week 18 with their backups.
Excluding Week 18, the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes tandem had K.C.’s offense picking up third downs at the NFL’s highest rate while ranking fifth in pass success rate, a testament to this unit’s metronomic efficiency.
And with Hollywood Brown finally in the lineup after his preseason shoulder injury and Xavier Worthy finding his footing, the passing game appears to be peaking entering the playoffs. In his final regular season game in Week 17, Mahomes posted his highest EPA per dropback of the season (0.43), one week after he recorded his fourth-highest mark in Week 16 (0.30).
Now Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs’ top veterans will be at nearly full strength when the Divisional Round arrives. That’s a frightening thought for the other teams in the playoff field trying to prevent the first Super Bowl three-peat.
The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18 but saw their ranking tank after the junior varsity team flopped against the Broncos.
Ignoring Week 18, Kansas City would have ranked eighth in EPA per rush and 11th in EPA per dropback. While not quite the dominant level of last year’s unit, that well-rounded top-10-level performance is more than enough to support an ascending offense.
The most encouraging sign for this unit was its improving pass rush. From Weeks 12-17, Kansas City had the fourth-highest non-blitz pressure rate (36.2%), a big leap after ranking 16th in that category (31.6%) from Weeks 1-10.
That’s especially frightening to consider when you remember that Steve Spagnuolo’s designer pressures are what this unit typically feasts on. Kansas City ended up blitzing at the ninth-highest rate this season (30.8%) and posted the seventh-best EPA per play while doing so.
After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking as the postseason arrives, setting aside the de facto exhibition in Week 18. That’s a familiar story from last season and could result in a familiar ending in February as well.
Defensively, Kansas City ranks 14th. However, the team’s Week 18 blowout loss to the Denver Broncos in which they rested their starters impacted their grade. Take away that poor performance by the junior varsity squad and they had the NFL’s ninth-best defense.