Despite winning 10 games and locking in a trip to the playoffs, Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh said his team will not play any differently than it would any other game. They are going out to win the game at all costs.
Chargers To Play Starters in Week 18 Game on Sunday
Harbaugh insists they are playing this game to win. That means the starters will play as the Chargers seek to win No. 11.
“We’re going to be playing to win at all times,” Harbaugh responded. “That never changes. I like what Derwin James Jr. said, he’s our captain. … He said, ’11 wins sounds better than 10. So we’re, we’re attacking it.'”
Harbaugh basically said winning at all costs and playing all of the starters is the only option. He does not want his team to think it is acceptable to lose under any circumstances.
“We’re attacking it with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind. The thing that doesn’t resonate right now is, you know, play the backups. What are we going to do? Dress 25 guys for the game?” he added.
Joey Bosa, who is coming back from an injury, is looking forward to the reps he will get before the playoffs.
“I think going into the playoffs, it’s important to not get rusty,” edge defender Bosa said. “Obviously I feel like I’m still really working back from my injury and have a lot to continue to improve.”
Harbaugh and the rest of the team will have their eyes on the television on Saturday, watching to see how the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals goes.
As things stand, entering Week 18, the Chargers are the No. 6 seed in the AFC, tied at 10-6 with the Steelers. They are two of three teams that could end up as the No. 5 seed in the AFC, with the Baltimore Ravens (11-5) being the other.
The combination of results in the two Saturday games determines nearly everything, but essentially if the Steelers win, the Chargers cannot be the No. 5 seed. The only way the Ravens impact the Chargers directly is if Baltimore loses and Pittsburgh wins.
The key things to remember before we go through these scenarios:
- The Steelers beat the Chargers in Week 3, so they have the tiebreaker advantage if their records are equal.
- The Ravens beat the Chargers in Week 12, so they have the tiebreaker advantage if their records are equal.
- The Chargers beat the Denver Broncos in both meetings this year, so they have the tiebreaker advantage if their records are equal.
- All divisional ties are resolved first, so there are no multi-team tiebreaker scenarios, meaning head-to-head is the only tiebreaker we will need.
Baltimore Wins and Pittsburgh Wins
If this scenario plays out on Saturday, the No. 3, No. 5, and No. 6 seeds in the AFC would be locked entering Sunday, and the Chargers would be unable to impact things at all. The Ravens would be 12-5 and would win the AFC North. The Steelers would be 11-6, and the Chargers could only match them if they won on Sunday.
Therefore, with the Steelers having the tiebreaker over the Chargers, the seeding for these three teams will be Ravens at No. 3, Steelers at No. 5, and Chargers at No. 6.
Baltimore Loses and Pittsburgh Wins
This is another scenario where the Chargers would have nothing to play for because of head-to-head tiebreakers. The Steelers would steal the division from the Ravens due to a superior divisional record, and the Chargers could only match the Ravens in terms of record at 11-6. If that is the case, the Ravens would be the No. 5 seed thanks to their Week 12 win over the Chargers.
Baltimore Wins, Ties, or Loses, and Pittsburgh Loses (or Ties)
If we see either of these scenarios on Saturday, then the Chargers would have a lot to play for on Sunday. In this scenario, the Ravens would clinch the division, and the Steelers would be left at 10-7 (or 10-6-1 if they tie). That would allow the Chargers to take the No. 5 seed with a win. If Pittsburgh loses, the Chargers would only need to tie, but if Pittsburgh ties with Cincinnati, the Chargers would need to win.
Some people will make the case that the Chargers should rest players in Week 18, regardless of what happens on Saturday. However, that is not the smart play based on our metrics. If the Chargers are the No. 6 seed, they have to play either the Steelers or the Ravens on the road. If the Chargers get the No. 5 seed, they face the Houston Texans on the road.
Before we talk about the impact of the weather conditions and the cold, let’s focus on the opponents. The Ravens are second in PFN’s PR+ rankings, the Steelers are 11th, and the Texans are 17th — and the Chargers are 12th.
Even on the road, the Chargers project as slight favorites over the Texans according to our metrics. However, in Baltimore or Pittsburgh, they are underdogs.
When you factor in the weather as well, a trip to Houston becomes much more desirable. The game in Houston will be played in a stadium with a retractable roof compared to open to the elements in Baltimore or Pittsburgh.
As a warm-weather-based team that plays in a covered stadium, those conditions in Houston are significantly better for the Chargers.
The Chargers are 4-2 this season when playing outdoors on the road, but those wins came against Cleveland, New England, Carolina, and Denver, compared to losses at Kansas City and Pittsburgh. The current forecast in Pittsburgh and Baltimore for Wild Card Weekend is temperatures around 30 degrees Fahrenheit and even potentially snow in Pittsburgh. In Houston, they are looking at temperatures just below 50 degrees Fahrenheit.
The benefits of facing Houston in Houston over facing either Baltimore or Pittsburgh on the road are clear to see. Therefore, if the Chargers have the chance to compete for the No. 5 seed, the data would suggest that is the right play. If that opportunity is taken away from them, then the sensible decision is to rest up in Week 18 and prepare for a cold-weather game in Baltimore or Pittsburgh.