The Baltimore Ravens (11-5) enter their Week 18 matchup against the Cleveland Browns (3-13) needing a win (or a Pittsburgh Steelers loss) to clinch the AFC North. Not only will a win on Saturday clinch the division crown, but it would also lock up the No. 3 seed and a home playoff game in the Wild Card Round.
The Ravens are currently huge home favorites against the Browns, giving 20 points at most sportsbooks. With the AFC North on the line, expect all of Baltimore’s key players to suit up in pursuit of better playoff positioning.
What else is on the line for the Ravens and Browns?
Lamar Jackson Will Play in Week 18
The Ravens have had quite a season, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Jackson tops PFN’s QB+ metric in 2024 with a grade of 99.8 (A+). Jackson is also a top MVP candidate alongside Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
In Week 17, Jackson led the Ravens to their 11th victory of the season, defeating the Houston Texans 31-2. Jackson rushed for 87 yards on the ground, which got him to a career total of 6,110 career rushing yards. Jackson passed legendary quarterback Michael Vick for the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL history.
Become the NFL’s best rushing QB ever… and be so lowkey about it 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oEKVMgFY8O
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 26, 2024
Currently, Jackson ranks in the top five in the NFL in passing touchdowns (39), PFN’s QB+ (99.8), and passer rating (121.6) ahead of Week 18.
While putting the finishing touches on an MVP campaign isn’t a legitimate reason to start someone, the playoff implications will allow Jackson to try and make a closing argument. It will be interesting to see how well Jackson plays and how much this game matters to voters, especially if the Ravens win.
Derrick Henry Has Cash Incentives To Collect vs. Cleveland
Henry has been the perfect addition in the backfield for this Baltimore offense and has solidified this one-two punch as arguably the NFL’s most feared ground game. Henry has generated 1,783 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.
Henry has been playing his own version of Monopoly, except each time he turns the corner and lands on “go,” he is collecting much more than $200. The incentives in his contract reward him with $500,000 for hitting certain milestones.
Henry has gotten $500,000 for getting to 1,200 rushing yards, 1,500 rushing yards, and again for reaching 13 rushing touchdowns. He can pick up another $500,000 if he can score another rushing touchdown on Saturday since he will bring his total to 15.
These incentives are known throughout locker rooms, and teammates always make a point of helping each other out when possible. Expect Henry to score on Saturday.
Listless Browns Starting Fourth QB This Season
The Browns have been quite literally limping to the finish line of the NFL season, losing their last five straight games, and are expected to have a “quarterback by committee” approach in the Week 18 season finale.
Cleveland also has a chance at the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Currently, they sit third in the NFL Draft order entering the weekend.
Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski announced that Bailey Zappe will get the start at QB, but he also plans to play QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the game. Robinson started the last two games for the Browns, while Zappe will get his first start of the season and first start since 2023.
Yes, the Ravens are almost a 20-point home favorite against a depleted and (quite literally) defeated 3-13 Browns team with nothing to play for. But the Ravens cannot assume a win is inevitable on Saturday.
Myles Garrett Is Ready to Play Spoiler
Browns All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett said that he is ready to play spoiler. Garrett is currently tied in first place for the most sacks in the season, so a big day from Garrett could give him a smaller, individual crown for the 2024 season.
“I mean, I’d rather upset them and mess up their playoff hopes,” Garrett said on Thursday. “And if the sack title comes along with that, great. Definitely going to do what I can to be disruptive and take number eight out of the game as much as possible. If that [sack crown] comes along with it, outstanding. But at the end of the day, I want to win.”
What the Ravens Need For the Playoffs
The Ravens get a golden opportunity to clinch the AFC North at home against the Browns in Week 18. If the Ravens win (or tie), they clinch the division, and there is nothing that the Steelers can do about it when they play later on Saturday. Unless Zappe, in his first start for the Browns, springs a major upset, the Ravens look set to clinch back-to-back division titles.
Our metrics give the Ravens an 87% chance of winning in Week 18. Zappe has yet to throw a pass for the Browns, with his last game being a 17-3 loss as the quarterback of the New England Patriots in Week 18 of last season. Zappe’s QB+ grade for the 2023 season was an F, with a grade of 45 after playing in 10 games.
The Ravens also have a second path to winning the division. If they lose, then the Steelers have to win to clinch the AFC North. That would leave the Steelers and Ravens tied at 11-6, but the Steelers would win the division based on a superior division record (4-2 vs. 3-3).
However, if the Steelers fail to win, the Ravens will clinch the AFC North thanks to a superior win percentage. Our metrics give the Steelers a 60% chance of winning in their game with the Cincinnati Bengals, so there is a 5.2% chance that the Ravens clinch the division via this route. In total, the Ravens have a 92.2% chance of winning the division based on our current win probabilities.
If the Ravens do lose the division to the Steelers, they are guaranteed to finish as the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12, meaning that they have an unassailable tiebreaker advantage. Therefore, if the Ravens lose and the Chargers win, Baltimore will still be the No. 5 seed as both will be tied in terms of record at 11-6.
Finishing as the No. 5 seed would send the Ravens to face the Houston Texans in a game they would be significant favorites to win (67% chance to win, per our metrics). We just saw the Ravens go into Houston and win 31-2, so they will not be afraid of a rematch.
However, playing at home on Wild Card Weekend is always preferable, and it gives the Ravens a chance of hosting either a Divisional Round game, the AFC Championship Game, or both.
If the Ravens win the division, they will host either the Chargers or Steelers. The Ravens are favored to win either of those games, having already beaten the Steelers at home in Week 16 and the Chargers on the road in Week 12. In both matchups, our metrics have the Ravens winning those games in more than 65% of our simulations.