If you’re making NFL bets on player touchdowns, then welcome to our Week 11 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for Sunday Night Football between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
SNF NFL Week 11 Anytime TD Scorer Predictions
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
MORE: NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions
The official over/under for this game is 51.5, which might not be high enough. This marks the fifth meeting between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, which began with Herbert’s first NFL start on September 20, 2020. Since then, they’ve combined for 18 touchdowns in their last three faceoffs.
That’s a lot of scoring.
And unlike the last two seasons, this year’s Chiefs have a below-average defense in points yielded per game, while L.A.’s notoriously anemic scoring defense remains near the league’s basement.
Anytime TD wagers function better in high-scoring affairs, and this one could be a doozy. I wouldn’t be surprised if these teams combine for nine touchdowns. A final score of roughly 34-30 seems reasonable.
With all of this in mind, here are my “anytime TD” recommendations.
Austin Ekeler (-165) — DraftKings
I recommended Derrick Henry with minus 170 odds on Thursday, and he came through. But I normally steer clear of deeply unfavorable odds, because strange things happen. That said, Austin Ekeler is such an offensive focal point and scorer, his odds of hitting paydirt on Sunday are comfortably above 50/50.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+225) — DraftKings
The story is always the same with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He might get a huge performance, thanks in large part to one big catch and run. Or he might take a backseat to most of his primary and secondary teammates.
This weekend, his boom-bust history works for us, especially with this betting line, and in this fairly ideal matchup. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are sidelined, meaning Valdes-Scantling has earned a promotion. Expect more snaps, more targets, and one or two more deep throws that, possessed with extraordinary speed, he can take to the house.
Gerald Everett (+410) — FanDuel
With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back, Gerald Everett’s receiving numbers might take a hit. But ironically, his TD potential could improve. Near the goal line, Herbert will have a lot more “great” options, versus a bevy of backups complementing Ekeler, Everett, and Josh Palmer. While he’s currently questionable, if he starts, I’m comfortable betting on Everett with these odds.
Patrick Mahomes (+550) — FanDuel
Mahomes has two rushing scores in each of his last four seasons. But this year, circumstances have changed a bit, even if they haven’t translated into more sprints into the end zone. Kansas City RBs have rushed for only four scores. Last year, they ran in 12.
MORE: NFL Super Bowl Odds 2023
What’s changed? They don’t have a reliable goal-line back, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been relegated to a backup role (for now).
No team has given up more red-zone touches to RBs than the Chargers. And while we might see Isiah Pacheco or Jerick McKinnon get an opportunity or two, Mahomes should be in the mix for at least a couple of scoring chances against a defense that keeps giving opponents prime opportunities.
Justin Herbert (+650) — FanDuel
After getting hurt when these teams last met, I’m betting Herbert will put a dramatic stamp on an already dramatic rematch and sneak one into the end zone. This team needs a spark after losing two of three — an emotional moment to rally around. A Herbert score would more than achieve that.