If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns, then welcome to our Week 14 rundown of favorite anytime TD scorer predictions.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
NFL Week 14 Anytime TD Scorer Predictions
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Josh Allen
Last week, Josh Allen had +200 odds on FanDuel to score as a rusher (or, to be frank, as a receiver). This weekend, he’ll face a tough Jets defense that’s actually given up four QB rushing TDs, or third most in the league.
Even more interestingly, quarterbacks have run the ball only six times in the red zone against the Jets — tied for the fourth fewest in the league.
How do we square this circle? New York has been highly inefficient at stopping QBs from scoring on the ground inside the 20-yard line. Perhaps their vaunted defense overcompensates against RBs, WRs, and TEs.
Also, it’s not just about the red zone. When these teams last played in Week 9, Allen capitalized on great blocking, athleticism, and the element of surprise to scamper essentially untouched for a 36-yard score.
Assuming you can get roughly similar +200 odds this week, I’d bet on Allen running one in again.
Justin Herbert
Last week, BetMGM offered +750 odds on an anytime Justin Herbert TD. Remember, this guy had eight rushing scores in his first two seasons — but none this year. Yet, three of his four highest rushing-yardage outings this season have come in three of the last four weeks.
Herbert’s more mobile than the average quarterback, and he’s proven to be capable near the goal line. So should we roll the dice in Week 14?
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I would. He’s getting a Dolphins team that’s middling at best against the run, and their vulnerable pass defense should enable LA to reach the red zone three times or more.
Although Herbert has plenty of solid-to-terrific options, an anytime touchdown line that’s close to +750 odds would be too favorable to pass up.
DeeJay Dallas
If Kenneth Walker III can’t play this weekend, then DeeJay Dallas might lead a Seattle backfield that includes Tony Jones Jr. and/or Travis Homer. Homer has been sidelined, necessitating the promotion of Jones, whose career 2.7 yards per carry reinforces what we already can assess about him: he’s a fallback option.
Dallas is a 2020 fourth-round pick with a well-rounded game and spot-start experience. He also has one of the best official photos in professional sports history.
The opposing Panthers are surrendering a healthy 4.8 yards per carry to running backs and a hair above one RB touchdown per game. And no team has spent more time on defense than Carolina. It’s a recipe for at least one touchdown opportunity.
And when it comes to longshot bets, high-probability opportunities are the biggest hurdle. The rest is simply about execution.
Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard, and Malik Davis
The Cowboys are favored by more than two touchdowns over Houston. Aside from winning, the primary goal is to keep their stars healthy. But of course, they still need to score, and I don’t see them easing the brakes after tallying only 20-24 points.
This is a good week to hedge on the Cowboys’ three RBs. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard might not return much more than even money. But Malik Davis’ +1000 anytime-TD line last week (FanDuel and BetMGM) suggests there’s an opening to capitalize on a superb matchup.
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Houston is tied for the most RB rushing touchdowns yielded, and opposing RBs’ 5.1 yards per carry is near the league’s most. I expect all three Cowboys running backs to see action, with Davis offering the biggest prize if he begins playing a mop-up role as early as the third quarter.
Christian Kirk
Finally, Christian Kirk will face one of the league’s toughest run defenses, but also one of the most generous pass defenses. The opposing Titans have surrendered an NFL-high 17 WR touchdowns. Only the Vikings have given up more receiving yards to wide receivers.
Last week, FanDuel offered +170 odds for Kirk finding the end zone. This week, I expect something comparable, making the Jags’ No. 1 receiver a solid bet.