If you enjoy making NFL bets on player touchdowns, then welcome to this rundown of our favorite anytime TD scorer predictions for both Conference Championship games this weekend. We’ve analyzed each game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are the best bets to reach the end zone. All prop bets are taken from DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM.
NFL Anytime TD Scorer Predictions for the Conference Championships
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Ja’Marr Chase (Even) — DraftKings
I was expecting to see odds around -120 to -130. Instead, we’re greeted with a 50/50 bet on one of the game’s top receivers versus one of the most vulnerable pass defenses.
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Surely, KC will try to lock down Ja’Marr Chase. They were moderately successful earlier this season — if we count holding him to a 7-97-0 receiving line “successful.” Given how many weapons Cincy has on offense and how the Chiefs lost anyway when they last met, I imagine there will be some defensive adjustments — albeit none that can shut Chase down.
Travis Kelce (+105) — FanDuel
Last week, Travis Kelce’s best TD odds were -140. So why is he now not favored to score? Perhaps because the Jacksonville Jaguars gave up seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends during the regular season, while the Cincinnati Bengals surrendered only three.
But if that’s a primary reason for Kelce’s drop-off, then I’m not buying it. He remains Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 target. The all-world TE has now reached the end zone 14 times in 13 playoff games since 2017, scoring in 10 of them (77%). Additionally, he owns a sterling 82% postseason catch rate since 2019 (87 receptions on 106 targets).
George Kittle (+190) — BetMGM
During the regular season, TEs racked up a modest 111-701-3 receiving line against San Francisco. In a bizarre coincidence, TEs collected a nearly identical 110-732-3 line versus Philly.
To be clear, these are not favorable conditions for George Kittle (or, as we’ll see below, Dallas Goedert). But Kittle has been locked in since Brock Purdy took the helm. His lack of touchdowns in the playoffs is irrelevant. He’s caught all seven targets in the postseason — including one of the most impressive postseason receptions in years — and is a weekly scoring threat.
Dallas Goedert (+240) — FanDuel
Pushed him last week. Pushing him again. I’ve got the Nines winning this one. But if any Eagle can exceed expectations, it might be Goedert. On another team with fewer high-end receivers, he might be the No. 2 TE in the league. For now, he’s simply a top target in an offense that needs to get creative to compete with San Francisco.
Hayden Hurst (+320) — FanDuel
While I don’t like chasing points, I like how Hayden Hurst has been utilized since returning to the field in Week 18: 17 targets in three contests.
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He’s the No. 4 or No. 5 option in this stellar offense facing one of the most pass-friendly Kansas City defenses in years — which happens to have yielded the most receiving scores in the league.
Patrick Mahomes (+850) — FanDuel
I like to bet when markets are frightened. To be clear, I don’t want a bunch of scared people running around, screaming about zombies and such. But fear tends to make bettors less rational, and that’s a good thing if we can stare fear in the face and make it run away… in fear.
Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain is concerning. He might not run much. Of course, the Chiefs are one win away from the Super Bowl. There’s no tomorrow if they lose. Up close, we might imagine Mahomes passing or Isiah Pacheco or Jerick McKinnon trying to break the plane.
Or, Mahomes might lunge for the end zone or get pushed from behind. At +850 odds, knowing how effective he’s been over the years (13 rushing scores from 10 yards out or less), he’s a solid bet.
Michael Burton (+2700) — FanDuel
We’re nearing the end of the season, so let’s have some fun. Michael Burton is listed at 243 pounds. The 30-year-old has two career TDs, including last season to open the scoring against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15.
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Burton is a hedge of sorts for Mahomes. Including Josh Allen last week, the Bengals have surrendered nine rushing scores from the 4-yard line or closer. Mahomes scored from three yards out when these teams last met. There’s an opening for a little-used specialist like Burton to pound the ball in from the half-yard line.