As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Antonio Gibson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Selected early in the third round, Gibson was the No. 7 RB taken in the 2020 NFL Draft. Each of the first six had clear bell-cow potential. Gibson didn’t. He had earned only 76 career rushing attempts across two campaigns at East Central Community College and two seasons at Memphis. He was known more as a receiver.
Washington didn’t care. The previous year, they were 3-13, with a backfield led by 34-year-old Adrian Peterson. They loved Gibson’s playmaking ability and converted him into their bell cow.
As some fantasy managers recall, Gibson shined in his new role while averaging the 19th-most RB fantasy points per game. He was the real deal. Or so it seemed.
As talented as he is, Gibson never profiled as an NFL workhorse. After netting a huge (for him) 170 carries as a rookie, he was handed the ball 258 times the following season while netting 42 catches. His yards per carry plummeted from 4.7 to 4.0, and his yards-after-contact average (1.9) and broken-tackle rate (one per 13.6 rushes) declined.
Last year, in the aftermath of his 300-touch campaign, Gibson’s precipitous decline continued.
While the arrival of rookie Brian Robinson capped his ceiling, Robinson had nothing to do with Gibson’s across-the-board regression, which included new career-lows in yards per carry (3.7), yards-after-contact average (1.5), and broken-tackle rate (one per 29.8 rushes).
Now he’s entering the fourth year of his rookie contract. And while his targets and receptions have crept upward each year, he increasingly appears miscast as a high-volume rusher.
With rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr. entering the backfield fray, Gibson realistically could finish a distant No. 2 in carries, or perhaps even No. 3 if Rodriguez shows well. Of course, the Commanders cannot afford to ignore Gibson. He’s still enormously valuable in the passing game.
This is where much of his value lies. Consider that 13 of his career 21 rushing TDs have come from the 1- or 2-yard line. Yet only one of those goal-line scores came after Robinson made his NFL debut last year.
This is no longer Gibson’s backfield. He might be the new J.D. McKissic — his former teammate — catching three or four balls per game while earning the occasional handoff. As a result, Gibson realistically might not crack 350 rushing yards. If he’s going to be a weekly fantasy Flex option, he’ll need to be one of the most prolific past-catching RBs in the league.
Should You Draft Antonio Gibson This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Gibson with an ADP of RB33. For context, McKissic was the overall RB31 in 2020 while collecting an 85-365-1 rushing line and an 80-589-2 receiving line. The former seems at least possible for Gibson. The latter might be a stretch, though Sam Howell under center might lean more heavily on Gibson than his predecessors did.
And actually, McKissic’s 2021 campaign might be more aligned with realistic expectations. In that season, he finished as the overall RB37 while securing a 48-212-2 rushing line and a 43-397-2 receiving line.
Doable for Gibson? Absolutely. In fact, those receiving numbers would be a floor rather than a midpoint for a guy who’s a proven asset in the passing game.
I like Gibson performing better than his ADP. This doesn’t mean he’ll be a reliable deep-league starter. But it does mean that if you’re the type of manager who jumped on McKissic — or guys like Theo Riddick before him — then Gibson offers solid top 35 upside, with a decent chance of hitting the top 30 if Washington commits to him as a top-three option on passing downs.