Once upon a time, Antonio Gibson was one of the most promising young running backs in the league. He was outstanding during his rookie and sophomore seasons, scoring 21 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he quickly lost his leading role and now finds himself positioned behind Rhamondre Stevenson in one of the worst offenses in the league.
What can fantasy managers expect from Gibson entering the 2024 NFL season?
Antonio Gibson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 139.9
- Rushing Yards: 485.1
- Rushing TDs: 2.9
- Receptions: 35.8
- Receiving Yards: 272.7
- Receiving TDs: 1.8
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of July 5. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Gibson This Year?
After finishing as a top-13 fantasy RB over his first two years in the league, Gibson fell out of favor with the Washington Commanders over the last two seasons. His usage in the running game dropped from an average of 14 carries per game from 2020-2021 to just under seven rushing attempts per game over the last two years.
The team made it clear they preferred to give Brian Robinson Jr. the lion’s share of the carries, which relegated Gibson to complementary pass-catching duties — where he did set a career-high in 2023 with 48 receptions for 389 yards.
Many fantasy managers will likely point out that Ezekiel Elliott managed to produce an RB30 overall fantasy finish last year working behind Stevenson in a similar complementary role — where he caught 51 passes for 313 yards. The context of Stevenson missing five games is important here, but the numbers do exist.
Yet Gibson was in a similar situation last year when Robinson went down with a hamstring injury, and the team preferred to expand Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s role instead of giving Gibson a feature role.
Perhaps one reason the Commanders reduced Gibson’s role was his ball-security issues. Gibson averaged a fumble every 28 touches last year, which was one of the highest rates in the league.
Gibson should see some receiving work behind Stevenson this year, but I don’t see it being enough to propel him into a trustworthy Flex role for your fantasy team in 2024.
Gibson’s ADP at No. 151 overall in the 13th round as the RB51 off the board suggests he is completely being overlooked by the fantasy community entering the 2024 NFL season. For some additional context, he is currently coming off the board after Ty Chandler, Kendre Miller, and Rico Dowdle.
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Gibson’s proven pass-catching floor has always stabilized his fantasy value in some regard, as he has seen his targets, receptions, and receiving yards climb in all four years of his NFL career. Yet, I’m not sure I see that being the case while working alongside Stevenson, who has a 69-reception season on his resume.
Additionally, the overall expectations of this retooled offense don’t exactly inspire confidence that this scheme will be able to produce a pair of top-35 fantasy RBs, which stands to remove much of his fantasy upside. Stevenson is projected to see the vast majority of the goal line work in an offense that is unlikely to generate many red zone opportunities on a per-game basis.
Gibson isn’t completely off my draft board, but I would rather throw darts at players like Jaleel McLaughlin, Ray Davis, or Tyrone Tracy Jr. in this range.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Insight on Antonio Gibson
Of course, I’m not unearthing new information here, and the pessimism surrounding Gibson in the fantasy community is clear with an ADP that is hovering around RB50 (13th round).
If you want to bet against Stevenson being healthy (five missed games in two of three seasons), go ahead and scoop up Gibson in the late rounds and hope for a few weeks of cheap volume (and hope his opportunity comes late—the Patriots play a bottom-five run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed in both Weeks 15 and 16).
Outside of that, I don’t see the upside in stashing Gibson. For reference, in his draft vicinity is MarShawn Lloyd, a back who I expect to have no standalone value week to week, but one that I would feel far better about if he were to move into a greater role than Gibson.
Isn’t that what we’re trying to do in these rounds? What difference does it make if Gibson projects for 3-5 more touches in a standard week than Lloyd if you’re not playing either when the starter is active?
Lloyd’s teammate, Dontayvion Wicks, headlines a tier of receivers that I also prefer to Gibson at this stage of the proceedings (Adonai Mitchell being first on that list).
Gibson simply doesn’t offer enough upside (almost regardless of where he is drafted) to have me interested this season. Barring an extreme outlier, I actively avoid the bottom-tier offenses, and the Patriots certainly qualify as such.