Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson ran for 11 scores in 14 games during a big rookie season, but he has just 10 rushing scores in 31 games since, and his yards per carry continue to trend in the wrong direction. That said, Gibson did record career highs in targets, receptions, and yards per catch, seemingly positioning him for a fantasy football-friendly role in 2023.
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Antonio Gibson’s Fantasy Outlook
Last season, Gibson had a chance to earn the feature role during the first month with Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined, but he didn’t reach 60 rushing yards in any of those first four games. Then, the rookie’s role developed in a hurry.
By season’s end, this was a committee situation that saw Robinson handle the bulk of the carries and Gibson handle the passing-game work. Given that these two running backs will again be the primary options in this backfield and showcased diametrically opposed strengths, it stands to reason that Washington will enter the 2023 season with a similar game plan — something that caps the fantasy football appeal of both.
That said, the release of J.D. McKissic in March does open up some usage, specifically in the passing game. During his three seasons in Washington, McKissic had more targets (203) than rushing attempts (145), a role that Gibson figures to absorb.
Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson were the top three receivers in the Commanders’ offense a year ago, and all three return. So while the Commanders have a new man under center in Sam Howell, the general flow of this offense should resemble what we saw down the stretch of 2022.
Can Gibson Earn the Lead Role in Washington?
The primary question fantasy managers will be asking themselves as they pick between these two RBs with nearly identical ADPs is, what is more likely? Robinson picks up work in the passing game, or Gibson gets enough work on the ground to elevate his floor?
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The former seems unlikely, given the fact that Robinson managed to catch just nine balls in 12 games last season and was never a major threat out of the backfield when playing for Alabama. The latter might not be “likely,” either, considering not a single one of Gibson’s 149 carries last season gained more than 20 yards. But we do at least have some proof of concept with him as a runner (4.3 yards per carry in his first two NFL seasons).
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Gibson at His ADP?
As you near pick No. 100, both Commanders’ running backs are of interest to me. In full PPR, I prefer chasing Gibson’s skill set. In anything else, I’m happy to take the cheaper of the two options.
I worry about the scoring potential in a low-octane offense like this, and that could mean playing from behind with consistency. If that’s how you see this season playing out, Gibson is the pick … both over Robinson and as a strong option in the middle rounds.