Week 8 will mark the second consecutive game Antonio Brown has missed due to injury. Brown hurt his ankle in the Bucs’ Week 6 win over the Eagles and hasn’t played since. What is the prognosis on Brown’s injury, and when can fantasy football managers expect him back in lineups?
Antonio Brown has looked like vintage AB
Rumors of Brown’s demise as an elite WR1 were greatly exaggerated. Brown is averaging 19.1 PPR points per game and sits as the overall WR8 in fantasy scoring. He’s been the Bucs’ WR1 and a fantasy WR1.
In Week 6, during another WR1 performance, Brown appeared to tweak his ankle in the first half. He went to the sidelines, got it wrapped, and finished the game. With 10 days to rest, it sure didn’t seem like a big deal. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case.
Bruce Arians provided a grim outlook on Antonio Brown’s injured ankle
Head coaches can often be overly optimistic/positive about player health. Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians, in particular, is quite notorious for not telling the truth when it comes to the status of his players. After all, this is the same coach that said Rob Gronkowski was “very close” to returning in Week 7 when, in fact, he was nowhere near returning and not practicing at all.
That doesn’t mean “coachspeak” is meaningless. We would still like to hear optimism from a coach and then adjust our expectations ourselves. Instead, Arians gave us this, as reported by Greg Auman of the Athletic:
“Arians says Antonio Brown has an ankle sprain near his heel, and when asked if he could be back after the bye for Week 10, he said they don’t know and it could be more longterm.”
While we don’t want anyone outright lying to us, the fact that Arians was willing to even mention the possibility of this being a long-term injury is very discouraging.
Brown’s ankle sprain is uncommon
I am certainly not a doctor. However, I have watched football for over two decades. During that time, I’ve encountered hundreds of injuries to players and naturally developed an understanding of how long players typically miss with specific ailments. This type of ankle sprain is entirely new to me.
When might Antonio Brown return from his injury?
We know Brown is out this week. In Week 9, the Bucs are on their bye. The hope is obviously that Brown can return in Week 10, but Arians’ words cast doubt on whether that is possible.
When I hear “long-term,” I don’t think, “Okay, Brown will only miss one more game.” I wish I had a more concrete prediction to make, but we are operating with limited information here.
Although Brown’s ankle sprain is in an uncommon location, it does seem unlikely that he’d be out two months due to any kind of non-high ankle sprain. If Brown isn’t ready to go following the bye, my best guess is either we see him by Week 12 or 13, or we don’t see him at all, possibly not until the NFL playoffs.
The good news is the Bucs did not place Brown on injured reserve. So, despite Arians’ words, that implies they expect him back within three weeks. Fantasy managers relying on Brown will need to tread water until Brown returns. As someone with AB in a league, I’m cautiously optimistic we see Brown back on the field sometime in November.
10/31 Update: Ian Rapoport reported that Brown is expected back after the bye. Once again, Arians cannot be trusted. This time, however, it is actually a good thing for the Bucs and fantasy managers alike.