Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Antonio Brown has only played in nine games since 2018. He closed out the 2020 regular season with a masterful performance in Week 17, finishing with 138 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Will this positive momentum carry over into the 2021 season? What is Brown’s fantasy football outlook and ADP heading into 2021?
Antonio Brown’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The Buccaneers prioritized retaining all of their key offensive playmakers after their Super Bowl victory. As a part of that, Brown agreed to a new contract to stay with Tampa Bay this past offseason. While a knee injury did hamper his 2020 season, Brown finished with 45 catches for 483 yards and 4 touchdowns.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Brown’s contract would not become official until he passed his physical. The veteran receiver underwent successful knee surgery, and as a result, the one-year, $6.25 million contract became official in late May. Brown will look to help the team repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Tampa Bay head coach Bruce Arians’ vertical passing attack and the Buccaneers’ magnificent receiving weapons unlocked the best version of quarterback Tom Brady we’ve seen since 2007.
The 43-year-old QB generated 4,633 passing yards and 40 touchdowns in 2020. He averaged 288 passing yards and 24.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as a QB1 in 62% of his 16 active games. Brady led all quarterbacks with 9.1 passing air yards per game (metric indicating how far a pass traveled in the air before it was caught). The entire offense will be even better in 2021, and this bodes well for Brown.
Competing for targets
Brown will be competing with wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for targets. However, all three could prosper in 2021.
Evans only averaged 7 targets per game last season. Nevertheless, he averaged 15.5 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as a WR2 or better in 56% of his games. That’s because most of Evans’ fantasy production was touchdown driven.
Evans saw a career-low 109 targets, but 14 of them came inside the 10-yard line. In fact, the only other receivers who scored more touchdowns than Evans (13) were Adam Thielen (14), Tyreek Hill (15), and Davante Adams (18).
Godwin, meanwhile, missed four games in 2020 but still led the Buccaneers in receiving yards per game (70). He finished 2020 with 65 receptions, 840 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns.
Brown will also be competing for targets with tight ends Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard. Yet, it would be a surprise to see these two tight ends combine for more than 120 targets.
Brady is in a great position to exceed 600+ pass attempts in 2021. The future Hall of Famer should have adequate pass protection. The Buccaneers’ offensive line is projected to be one of the NFL’s top run/pass-blocking units. Tampa Bay has adequate depth to stabilize the unit should any injuries arise.
Fantasy projection
During the regular season from 2013 to 2018, Brown averaged a superb 22.2 PPR fantasy points per game. He finished as a WR2+ in 75% of his games while averaging 11 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 99.4 receiving yards per game during that time frame. The presence of Evans and Godwin will prevent him from seeing that high of a target share in 2021.
Still, Brown projects for around 100 targets, 900 receiving yards, and 7 touchdowns this season. He provides you with a low-end WR3 floor and a low-end WR2 ceiling. Brown will have some monster games in 2021 with the Buccaneers’ favorable schedule.
Antonio Brown’s ADP
Brown is usually available in the ninth round of fantasy drafts when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker. There is a stark difference in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Brown has an ADP of 82.31. However, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 104.9.
Should you draft Brown in 2021?
Absolutely. Brown can be viewed as a solid WR3 with upside for more. The Buccaneers’ pass-heavy offense provides him a higher floor than other No. 3 receivers. Brown is an inexpensive way to get exposure to one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.