The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Richardson show off development in his arm as a rookie, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Anthony Richardson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It’s so refreshing when you see a team fall in love with the attributes and make what many call a risky pick.
When you’re a GM or a coach, it’s easy to take the safe option because of the potential repercussions and people in the parking lot with pitchforks. But the Colts went for the home run when they selected Richardson at No. 4 overall.
Richardson has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in his class. He’s big (6’4″ and 244 pounds) and can scramble with the best of them, but he does it in a physical manner while having the speed to run away from defenders. It’s very reminiscent of Justin Fields.
In fact, I think these two players are on a similar trajectory, but Richardson has an even higher ceiling, which is in no way a shot at Fields. It’s just that Richardson could be a Cam Newton-level player.
Richardson’s Combine numbers alone make fantasy managers and NFL general managers alike drool: 4.43 40-yard dash (1.53 10-yard split), 40.5″ vertical, and 10’9″ broad, giving him a perfect 10.00 RAS.
Indianapolis was arguably the second-best landing spot for any QB outside of the Detroit Lions. It’s easy to begin looking at the players on the field, but it’s the coach in his ear which matters the most to me.
Shane Steichen Was the Best Possible Outcome for Richardson
While Jalen Hurts was a much more polished quarterback and a proven winner coming out of college, he greatly benefited from Shane Steichen’s scheme, who implemented RPOs and capitalized on Hurts’ elite athletic skill set.
That’s precisely what’s going to happen in Indianapolis, with Richardson sharing the backfield with Jonathan Taylor.
That rushing upside is everything for Richardson because he’s still a very raw thrower of the football. Sometimes he hesitates to throw the wide-open receiver, and his ball placement is erratic. That’s going to come in time. But maybe not in Year 1.
Instead, I expect Richardson to figure it out as he goes as a passer but receives more of his fantasy upside from his rushing while he adjusts his timing and placement to Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Jelani Woods.
A top-12 finish in 2023 is absolutely on the board for Richardson, but it will not be easy. Projections are all over the place for Richardson, and even mine are going to change several times over the next 100 days.
Currently, Richardson’s 2023 fantasy football projections have him throwing for roughly 2,800-3,000 yards with a 1.5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and 800-850 rushing yards on 165+ carries with seven touchdowns as a low-end QB1.
Should You Draft Anthony Richardson This Year?
Trying to decipher what Richardson will do on the field in his rookie year is one thing, but trying to figure out whether you should draft him is a different one entirely.
More often than not, quarterbacks tend to be devalued in 1QB leagues slightly more than they should. But that is partially the nature of the format. You typically only have a maximum of 12 quarterbacks starting any given week, and they are reliable high-upside QB2s just sitting there on the waiver wire. But the amount of difference-making quarterbacks is vastly smaller.
Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen are most certainly in this group. You can also step down one tier and look at Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, who each bring vastly different skill sets.
I would also include Fields and even Justin Herbert in this group, along with Trevor Lawrence not far behind. They should be the first eight quarterbacks off the board, even if the order slightly varies.
It also makes Richardson a harder sell on draft day, as you’re not getting a rookie discount on him. Based on early ADP reporting, Richardson is being drafted as the QB15 at around 110-115 overall, which places him at the start of the ninth round in 12-team formats.
This now feels like somewhat of a solid value for Richardson in a 1QB league. You swing for the upside at a relatively low risk. If you can pair him with a “safer” starting QB like Cousins and can afford the bench spot, then it seems a solid move to make. Richardson could blow hot and cold as a rookie, but if he gets on a run, you will want to have him as an option on your bench.
For someone with Richardson’s upside, I’m willing to break the rule of not rostering multiple quarterbacks in a 1QB league, something I typically advocate avoiding.
As for Superflex, I’m all-in on Richardson being my QB2 to pair with one of the earlier quarterbacks like Hurts, Mahomes, Fields, or Lawrence. Even if Richardson struggles as a rookie, his rushing upside should be enough to keep him inside the top 16.
I just wish that was the price you had to pay on draft day to add a player with Richardson’s immense skill set to your roster.