It certainly wasn’t the rookie season Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson hoped for. Dealing with multiple injuries, including a season-ender, Richardson didn’t get a chance to prove if what he did during his short time on the field was sustainable.
How should fantasy football managers approach the relatively unproven sophomore quarterback?
Should You Select Anthony Richardson at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 51st Overall (QB6)
- 2023 Recap: Anthony Richardson’s rookie season was cut short by multiple injuries, including a season-ending shoulder injury. He only completed two full games, leaving his potential largely unproven.
- 2024 Outlook: Richardson remains a high-upside option despite limited NFL experience. He showed flashes of fantasy relevance, particularly in games where he was healthy, with fantasy points of 21.9, 17.7, and 29.6 in three games.
- Rushing Potential: While his passing numbers are still a question mark, Richardson’s rushing ability (averaging 34 yards per game on the ground) gives him a high fantasy ceiling, making him an intriguing pick.
- ADP Value: Richardson is currently being drafted as the QB6, 51st overall. This is high for a player with limited action, but his rushing upside makes him potentially undervalued, especially compared to quarterbacks who don’t run as much.
- Comparison to Peers: If Richardson can stay healthy, he could easily outperform his ADP and finish as a mid-QB1 or even an elite QB. His current ADP is lower than what it could have been if he finished last season healthy.
- Final Verdict: Richardson’s upside in 2024 is significant, particularly due to his rushing ability. While the opportunity cost at his ADP is high, he’s more likely to outperform it than not, making him a worthwhile pick.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Anthony Richardson
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
60) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
61) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
62) Zack Moss, RB | Cincinnati Bengals
63) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
64) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
65) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
66) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
Anthony Richardson’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
One of my mantras for fantasy analysis is that collegiate production doesn’t matter once we have enough NFL production to evaluate. With Richardson, we don’t have that.
As a rookie, Richardson started a mere four games and only played two to completion. A concussion knocked him out of one (as well as costing him the following week’s contest). Then, a shoulder injury forced Richardson to leave what would be his final game of the season.
Richardson finished his rookie season with 80 pass attempts, completing 50 of them for 577 yards and three touchdowns against one interception. There’s not much for us to do with that information.
But while his passing numbers remain largely a black box, I believe we saw enough on the ground to make reasonable inferences. Richardson averaged 6.25 rush attempts for 34 yards per game. In this case, it’s fair to project that to be mostly sustainable across a full season.
Richardson made it through 90% of the snaps in three games last season. In those games, he scored 21.9, 17.7, and 29.6 fantasy points, respectively.
As we’ve established, three games are not a large sample size. We cannot say with any certainty that Richardson will be an elite fantasy quarterback if healthy. What we can say, though, with absolute certainty is that the potential exists. It’s his potential that makes Richardson so appetizing for fantasy managers.
Is Richardson a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Richardson is going off the board as the QB6, No. 52 overall. That’s quite high for a player with such limited action. However, when you consider his profile, it may be a bargain.
I have Richardson ranked as my QB5. I love C.J. Stroud, and if I were running an NFL team, I would take him ahead of Richardson without even blinking.
But this is fantasy football.
In fantasy football, rushing is a cheat code. Guys like Stroud and Joe Burrow may be better real-life quarterbacks than Richardson, but they don’t run. If Richardson runs at the pace he did last season and can stay healthy, he’s a lock to finish as at least a mid-QB1, if not an elite one.
Had Richardson not gotten hurt, there’s a very real chance he’d be going in the same range as Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson. He has the potential to be that level of runner. We may be talking about just this dilemma in a year’s time.
There are several good quarterbacks, so you don’t necessarily need to reach for Richardson. The opportunity cost of passing on running backs and wide receivers at Richardson’s ADP remains high. However, I do believe he’s more likely to outperform his ADP than not, making him a worthwhile pick in 2024 fantasy drafts.