The Anthony Richardson dynasty excitement reached a fever pitch before he ever took his first NFL snap. Then a shoulder injury cost him the final 13 games of his first season — but the early returns were glorious and showcased exactly why some of us have him labeled as a surefire QB1 in redraft formats that is even more valuable in leagues that extend beyond 2024.
Talk from the Indianapolis Colts is that the physical specimen (third quarterback ever with a perfect Relative Athletic Score at the NFL Combine, joining Daunte Culpepper and Cam Newton) is well ahead of schedule in terms of his extended recovery plan.
But should managers be willing to write off 2023 as poor injury luck? Or does Richardson’s style of play elevate his injury risk to a point where his downside in fantasy football stands to be just as impactful as his upside?
Anthony Richardson’s Dynasty Outlook
The term “cheat code” gets thrown out often. The impact of a mobile quarterback isn’t what it once was given the surplus of players that can produce in a variety of ways, but Richardson appears to be uniquely gifted, even by today’s standards.
We saw Newton post three top-five finishes at the QB position (points per game) in seasons in which he completed under 60% of his passes, creating the path to my aggressive ranking of a player with a limitless ceiling.
The rushing production stands to be elite the second Richardson gets back onto the field, and if the passing improves at all over time (2023: 59.5% completion, 6.9 yards per attempt), he could prove to be a difference-maker for the upcoming decade.
HAVE A DAY, ROOK!#Colts QB Anthony Richardson with 2️⃣ rushing TDs in the 1st quarter 🤯
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 17, 2023
Of course, Richardson will need to develop, and the Colts will need to build a roster around what he does well. But the tools at his disposal are nothing short of rare. Richardson proved as much by having four rushing scores in his four appearances last season, with three of those games including a 38+ yard completion.
Many young quarterbacks experience a learning curve. That’s likely to occur for Richardson; it just doesn’t serve as something that will hinder his fantasy stock in a significant way.
If he struggles to complete passes, Richardson’s rushing volume should take off, and every rush attempt is going to carry more fantasy-scoring equity than a traditional dropback. That said, with the re-signing of Michael Pittman Jr., I’m optimistic that A-Rich (we need a better nickname for the fantasy goodness he is set to produce!) will be able to return stable passing numbers in 2024 and beyond.
Richardson’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Richardson land in the dynasty QB landscape as we head deeper into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Richardson lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Jalen Hurts | PHI
3) Josh Allen | BUF
4) C.J. Stroud | HOU
5) Anthony Richardson | IND
6) Joe Burrow | CIN
7) Lamar Jackson | BAL
8) Justin Herbert | LAC
9) Dak Prescott | DAL
10) Caleb Williams | FA
11) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
12) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
13) Kyler Murray | ARI
14) Brock Purdy | SF
15) Jordan Love | GB
Should You Trade Richardson in Dynasty?
The only downside I’m willing to consider in Richardson is his availability, but if 2023 taught us anything, it’s that health for any quarterback isn’t to be assumed. We saw Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford miss time while Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen started every game for their respective teams.
If you’re running from upside of this level due to injury concerns that can’t be predicted, you’re leaving win equity on the table.
“Scared money don’t make money.”
KEEP READING: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Is Richardson at a higher risk of injury than most? You could argue that given his physical style of play, sure. But projecting injuries is a dangerous business — just ask anyone who ran away from Christian McCaffrey after a few banged-up seasons.
Trading away Richardson, in my opinion, would indicate that you had no conviction in drafting him last summer. I’m doing everything I can to get more exposure to him entering his age-22 season before the price becomes prohibitive.
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