Sam Darnold was one of the most surprising comeback stories of the 2024 NFL season. Once considered a massive draft bust, Darnold found new life with the Minnesota Vikings under Coach of the Year Kevin O’Connell. In that high-powered offensive scheme, he emerged as a fringe MVP candidate.
As a result, he became one of the most coveted free agents of the spring—though not without some risk attached. The Seattle Seahawks, however, clearly liked what they saw, signing him to a three-year deal worth $100.5 million, including $55 million guaranteed. For many analysts, that contract was a bridge too far.
Analysts Rip Seattle Seahawks for Sam Darnold Move
Darnold threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns—both ranking fifth in the league—so if he continues that level of production, his deal could end up looking like a bargain.
Yet, Seattle has undergone massive changes this offseason. After missing the playoffs on a tiebreaker despite a 10-7 record, the team parted ways with Tyler Lockett, traded DK Metcalf, and moved on from quarterback Geno Smith.
With so much uncertainty surrounding Darnold and the roster overhaul, analysts questioned the move.
As a result, it led to analysts questioning the decision, especially with the uncertainty that still surrounds Darnold. Dave Kluge wrote, “Tearing down a roster that was a win away from the playoffs to build around Sam Darnold is a choice.”
Others pointed to the downgrade in offensive line play. The Vikings ranked ninth in PFSN’s OL+ metric, while the Seahawks finished second to last.
As Brandon Carney pointed out, “Sam Darnold going to a team with no OL and one real WR what could go wrong.” Behind a severely worse front line, that could lead to a far less productive season from the former top pick.
That concern was echoed by Warren Sharp, who highlighted Darnold’s struggles under pressure. “29% of Sam Darnold’s incompletions were because he was being pressured…but that was behind a Vikings OL that ranked #2 in pass block win rate. He’s going tom be pressured a lot more in Seattle. Seahawks OL last year ranked #30 in pressure rate.”
Frank Ammirante didn’t hold back, calling Seattle’s situation a “recipe for disappointment.”
“A downgrade in play-caller, weapons, and offensive line,” he wrote.
Even those who wanted to believe in the move, like Kendall Valenzuela, had their doubts.
“I really want to like this, but Darnold had one of the most quarterback-friendly situations last season with O’Connell, offensive line, receiver talent and defense. ”
She did, however, see a path to success: “Seahawks must get better at identifying OL talent and making that group better if he’s going to succeed.”
Lindsay Rhodes had similar thoughts, claiming, “Look, I get how SEA might be a good fit for Darnold in some ways, but man… I’d like to see what they do with the pass-catchers before I feel comfortable saying that.”
Her biggest concern? The uncertainty surrounding Darnold’s environment. “The one thing we *know* about Darnold is that environment matters. Right now, I don’t know what that environment is.”
Even ESPN’s Bill Barnwell saw logic in the move—but only if Seattle reinvested in the offensive line. “I can understand the logic, but if you don’t use the savings from the Metcalf trade to address the OL, it’s not going to work.”
Despite Darnold’s strong 2024 campaign, he finished just three spots above Geno Smith on PFSN’s QB+ metric (12th vs. 15th), even with elite coaching, a top-tier offensive line, and a stacked receiver group that included Justin Jefferson.
MORE: PFSN’s Top 121 Free Agents
Sterling Xie of PFSN summed it up when ranking the top 121 free agents:
“Darnold is a solid value in a vacuum, but now he’s leaving the environment that allowed him to thrive in 2024. Given Seattle’s weaknesses at offensive line and perimeter receiver, it’s hard to imagine Darnold thriving to the extent he did in Minnesota.”
Now stepping into a far worse situation than he had with the Vikings, it remains to be seen whether Darnold can replicate his breakout success—or prove he’s truly worth his contract.