The Falcons didn't take some massive leap forward offensively after moving on from Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder. Yet, Bijan Robinson still managed to prove he was as good as advertised. Robinson's opportunity share went from a paltry 52.3% in 2023 to nearly 70% in 2024. Treated like the lead back he is, Robinson averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB3. With a full offseason to develop, this offense should be even better during Michael Penix Jr.'s second season. Robinson has 20-touchdown upside in 2025.
Whether you go with a running back or Ja'Marr Chase at the top will depend on your draft philosophy regarding the running back position. Wide receivers massively underwhelmed in 2024. Just don't blame Chase for contributing. The Bengals WR1 led all non-QBs with 23.7 fantasy points per game and won the WR triple crown, leading the league in receptions, yards, and receiving touchdowns. Cincinnati's defense won't be as bad next year, but Chase remains a supreme alpha playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
Given how well running backs performed compared to wide receivers, and the reactionary nature of fantasy managers, Saquon Barkley will likely get the nod over Ja'Marr Chase as the most common top pick in 2025 drafts. It just won't be unanimous the way Christian McCaffrey was in 2024. Barkley became the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for over 2,000 yards in a season. Despite losing a number of touchdowns to the tush push, Barkley still managed to score 13 on the ground and two more through the air. His 22.2 fantasy points per game led all running backs.
It speaks volumes about Justin Jefferson that "only" averaging 18.7 fantasy points per game feels like a down year. The perennial WR1 caught 103 passes for 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns. There's really not much to say about Jefferson. He's a sure thing with an incredibly high floor and overall WR1 upside.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Puka Nacua finished as the overall WR1 in 2025. In fact, I will probably predict it in a future article. Nacua's usage was incredible. If you remove the game he got hurt and the game he got ejected, Nacua's 17-game pace put him on track to earn 200 targets. He's an elite talent with the perfect QB in the perfect system. There's no 1a/1b debate with Cooper Kupp anymore. Nacua is the 1. Nacua averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game this season, but that bumps up to 21.8 ppg if you remove the two games he did not finish.
David Montgomery is good for Jahmyr Gibbs. We cannot feel confident that Gibbs would make it through a full season if he touched the ball 400 times. But if we ever get a full season of Gibbs with an entire backfield to himself, we're talking 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson level upside. With that said, it's not as if Gibbs wasn't still elite with Montgomery. His Week 18 eruption pushed him over 20 fantasy points per game, but he was firmly around 18 with Montgomery. He's well worth a mid-first round selection.
Death. Taxes. Derrick Henry. Simply put, Henry is built different. That's why he can do what he's doing at over 30 years old. No running back over the age of 30 has ever rushed for more yards than Henry's 1,921, which was second in the league behind Saquon Barkley. Henry ran for a league-leading 16 touchdowns (tied with Jahmyr Gibbs, plus he had two more through the air). It's the third time in his career he led the league in rushing touchdowns. At this point, I am willing to go down with the ship on Henry. I will believe he is done when I see it. This Ravens offense is not going to suddenly get worse. Henry remains an elite RB1.
For the first time in his career, CeeDee Lamb did not average more fantasy points per game than the previous season. Of course, that was to be expected after Lamb averaged 23.7 ppg in 2023. Playing half the season without Dak Prescott and through a sprained shoulder, Lamb still managed to average 17.6 ppg. He saw a 27.3% target share was targeted on nearly 30% of his routes run. Lamb is still an elite WR1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the safest player in all of fantasy. St. Brown posted 11 games with 18+ fantasy points, which was about his average (18.6 ppg), and mixed in a couple underwhelming games with two mega explosions. The 2025 Lions offense is going to look a lot like the 2024 Lions, which looked a lot like the 2023 Lions. St. Brown epitomizes reliable and is once again a worthy mid-to-late first round selection.
Entering 2024, there were some wondering if Nico Collins' 2023 breakout was a fluke. We have our answer. Collins followed up his excellent 2023 with an even better 2024. The Texans WR1 was a clear alpha. He led the team in target share was the obvious favorite target for C.J. Stroud. Collins averaged 17.55 fantasy points per game in a Texans offense that really took a step back following Stroud's stellar rookie season. They should bounce back in 2025, which gives Collins 20 ppg upside.
The argument in favor of second-round De'Von Achane was that he had the potential to break fantasy. On the surface, he came up short. While 17.6 fantasy points per game is nothing to scoff at, we know he has legendary upside, and that's not hitting it. When you dig deeper, you realize that Achane did exhibit that league-winning upside. He averaged 22.5 ppg in his 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa healthy. We certainly can't bank on Tagovailoa ever staying on the field. However, Achane has proven to be an elite RB1, and is well worth a first round selection in 2025.
Think about everything that worked against Malik Nabers as a rookie. He caught passes from three different quarterbacks, none of whom are viable NFL starters. Yet, Nabers managed to break the record for rookie receptions (which was subsequently broken by Brock Bowers later that day) despite missing two games and having to deal with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito at QB. Nabers averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game, which not only led all non-Jayden Daniels rookies, but was good for overall WR5. There's simply no way Nabers' situation can be worse in 2025. Somehow, I actually think what Nabers just did is close to his floor. I fully expect Nabers to be in the No. 1 overall pick conversation after next season.
