The NFC North is loaded with playmakers and limited attention to defense – it’s a breeding ground for fantasy football production. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson are the division’s two first-round representatives in most drafts, both carrying elite starts to their respective careers.
Jefferson is widely considered the best receiver in the league, but the conversation for our purposes is one worth having, especially with the Vikings quarterback situation now decided.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown has shown great consistency by ranking as a top-10 receiver in both catches and yards in consecutive seasons, flashing the type of scoring potential late last season that gives him the path to be the top fantasy receiver in 2024.
- Seasons 1-2: 11 touchdowns on 196 catches
- Season 3: 10 touchdowns on 119 catches
I like Jameson Williams as much as anyone in 2024, but I very much believe that there is room for his breakout alongside continued dominance from St. Brown.
AMON-RA ST. BROWN 70-YARD TD
📺: #MINvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/rUyhJjUi0c— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
We know Williams has the tools to threaten defenses downfield, and while St. Brown is capable of doing that, the fact that he hasn’t had a catch gain more than 30 yards in 22 of his past 26 games, including the playoffs, leads me to believe that his bottom line won’t be impacted in a major way if Williams takes the step I’m projecting.
In 2022, St. Brown scored all of his touchdowns at home (57.7% of his yards came in front of the Detroit faithful as well). We know that Jared Goff can be a different quarterback at home than on the road, so this was a minor concern of mine entering 2023 — a concern I no longer have after St. Brown found the end zone seven times on the road.
They say you can only lose a draft in the first round. You’re not doing that if you select St. Brown.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Justin Jefferson
Jefferson’s résumé is downright video game-ish. Yes, it’s so good that we need to bend the English language to describe it properly.
In 60 career games, Jefferson has racked up 5,899 receiving yards. Even with injuries all over Minnesota’s offense late last season, he was there when fantasy managers needed him most (23 catches for 392 yards and a pair of touchdowns over his final three games).
Jefferson has been a staple on successful fantasy teams ever since he stepped foot onto a professional field.
But with Sam Darnold starting for the Vikings, Jefferson’s name is not in consideration for the first-overall pick this season as it has been in years past. The next time Darnold supports a receiver scoring even 14.5 PPR PPG will be a first. Jefferson would have to clear that by 50% to be in the mix for the 1.01.
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
While both of these receivers boast an elite skill set, only one has an elite fantasy grade for me entering 2024: St. Brown.
On a per-game basis last season, these two stars finished back-to-back as WR4 and WR5 in PPR formats. That justifies us having this conversation, but it’s our job as fantasy managers to read the tea leaves. I’m not sure how you do so and get to any conclusion other than the Lions ace being the pick.
MORE: 2024 Consensus Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
Minnesota, with a reliable veteran in Kirk Cousins under center, ranked sixth in pass rate over expectation a season ago while Detroit ranked 25th. The Vikings also upgraded at the running back position by bringing in Aaron Jones to replace Alexander Mattison.
There are plenty of moving pieces for Jefferson that slant away from his projection while the Lions appear plenty content for St. Brown to dictate everything much like he did a year ago.
Did you know that St. Brown exploded last season with Jared Goff ranking 19th in passer rating on short passes? Imagine if that bounces back to top-10 (Goff ranked seventh in that metric during his first two seasons with the team).
St. Brown is more likely to improve than regress. I’d say the opposite Jefferson.
