Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra. St. Brown was a bit of a polarizing player entering 2022 fantasy drafts. He put all concerns to rest with a top-12 finish. Can St. Brown continue to build on his performance and be even better in 2023? What is St. Brown’s fantasy football projection?
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Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
I didn’t really have a strong opinion of St. Brown last season. On the one hand, his stellar close to his rookie year did come when D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson were mostly hurt. On the other hand, you don’t do what St. Brown did (25.2 PPR fantasy points per game over his final six games) unless you’re good at football.
St. Brown’s ideal conditions for massive volume, plus his Day 3 draft capital, depressed his ADP last season. He wound up being one of the biggest draft day bargains.
St. Brown left no doubt as to the reason behind his strong close to his rookie year being his talent. Targets are a skill metric. They are earned by receivers who are good at getting open. St. Brown earned an elite 28.1% target share last season. He turned that into 106 catches for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns. His 16.7 ppg was good for an overall WR10 finish.
Look no further than St. Brown’s 32.3% targets per route run rate for evidence of his dominance. Despite running a route on a mere 82.5% of Lions’ pass plays, 50th in the league, St. Brown was third in targets per route run.
St. Brown was exceptional at getting open, especially against man coverage. And he was elite after the catch, finishing inside the top 10 in evaded tackles per touch.
The only real knock on St. Brown is he’s not a downfield guy. His 6.2 average depth of target was barely inside the top 100. If anything, it makes his 8.0 yards per target look better than it should.
But make no mistake, St. Brown is a true alpha and every bit worthy of being a WR1.
Should You Draft Amon-Ra St. Brown This Year?
The stage is set for St. Brown to be even better in 2023 than he was in 2022. Fantasy managers should never have had any concerns about Jameson Williams taking targets from St. Brown. With Williams missing the first six games due to suspension, those concerns should be nonexistent now.
The Lions are perilously thin at wide receiver, even with Williams. Currently, their depth chart behind ARSB consists of Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, and 33-year-old Marvin Jones. Their starting tight end is rookie Sam LaPorta. Swift is gone, replaced by rookie Jahmyr Gibbs who, while talented, is not a threat to St. Brown’s volume. By all accounts, St. Brown is very much in play to lead the NFL in targets.
It also helps that he plays with an accurate quarterback in Jared Goff, who is completely immobile. So, St. Brown isn’t losing any targets to QB scrambles.
We also love when WR1s can get slot snaps. Well, St. Brown gets plenty of them. He lined up in the slot 46% of the time last season. His 367 slot snaps were 10th in the league.
From the slot, St. Brown was very effective. He averaged 8.52 ppg from the inside alone. That’s just over half his overall average of 16.7 ppg.
St. Brown is currently my WR9. While I’m only one slot above his WR10 ADP, I would take him well ahead of his No. 20 overall ADP.
Suffice it to say I am extremely bullish on St. Brown this season. I believe 2022 was only the beginning, and he will average 18+ ppg this year.
St. Brown really does remind me of a younger Cooper Kupp. I’m not saying he’s about to give us a 25 ppg season, but 20+ ppg is very much within reach. All it would take is a spike in touchdowns or a couple more splash plays. Fantasy managers should have no reservations about selecting St. Brown in the late first/early second round of fantasy drafts.