The Detroit Lions will face the Washington Commanders in the Divisional Round. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Is Amon-Ra St. Brown Playing in the Divisional Round?
St. Brown was not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Lions’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Amon-Ra St. Brown in the Divisional Round?
I’m offended. I’m offended on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s behalf, and he obviously needs the support of a scrawny researcher in the northeast. Who doesn’t?
I’m offended by the “slot merchant” comments from George Pickens that recirculated this past week due to a savvy merchandise deal. I’m offended that he isn’t often in the “best receiver in the sport” conversations that talk shows have every week. I’m offended that he has a good shot at posting the lowest ownership number of the elite receivers on this slate.
I’m offended for him but happy for me and us. If people truly do overthink things and do not click his name with regularity, we get the potential to roster a star while making up ground on the field in doing so.
Washington was able to advance last week, but it wasn’t because of a sterling defensive effort (Baker Mayfield completed 15 of his 18 passes for 185 yards and a pair of touchdowns). The Commanders are a bottom-10 pass defense in opponent passer rating and yards per completion — buckle up!
For the unaware, St. Brown is as consistent as any receiver in the game, and he’s only getting better.
St. Brown’s PPR production relative to expectations by season:
- 3.5% over expectations in 2022
- 16.5% over expectations in 2023
- 24.1% over expectations in 2024
He’s reached double-digit in expected points in 10 straight games and has more end-zone targets this season than he had in the last two combined. The slot role gets looked down at times, and while I don’t think that’s fair, it’s also not all that he does.
St. Brown has six games with multiple deep receptions this year and his efficiency down the field has spiked (40% deep catch rate as a rookie and 63.2% since). I always have some St. Brown exposure, no matter the ownership or matchup data — this week will feature even more investment on my end, with both of those boxes projecting to be in our favor.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Divisional Round Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Fantasy Points Projection in the Divisional Round
As of Saturday, St. Brown is projected to score 25.1 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 9.4 receptions for 103.5 yards and 0.8 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Washington Commanders were a below-average defense for most of the season, which their final ranking reflects. Ultimately, Washington's performance was largely fairly consistent based on their level of competition.
The Commanders had five weekly top-10 finishes this season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
Against the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round, the Commanders recorded a 68.3 (D+) grade, their fourth-lowest of the season. Washington recorded its second-worst EPA per dropback (-0.60) and passing success rate of the season (39%), with Tampa Bay's point total suppressed by the Commanders' massive edge in time of possession.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Dallas Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23, but that's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders will face an even tougher test in the Divisional Round against the Lions' offense.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 9:15 AM ET on Saturday, January 18. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Divisional Round Superflex Rankings.
Divisional Round WR PPR Rankings
1) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs. WAS)
2) Puka Nacua | LAR (at PHI)
3) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. LAR)
4) Nico Collins | HOU (at KC)
5) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at DET)
6) Jameson Williams | DET (vs. WAS)
7) Khalil Shakir | BUF (vs. BAL)
8) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. HOU)
9) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. LAR)
10) Cooper Kupp | LAR (at PHI)
11) Rashod Bateman | BAL (at BUF)
12) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. HOU)
13) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. HOU)
14) Keon Coleman | BUF (vs. BAL)
15) Amari Cooper | BUF (vs. BAL)
16) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at DET)
17) John Metchie III | HOU (at KC)
18) Dyami Brown | WAS (at DET)
19) Curtis Samuel | BUF (vs. BAL)
20) Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at PHI)
21) Tim Patrick | DET (vs. WAS)
22) Nelson Agholor | BAL (at BUF)
23) Mack Hollins | BUF (vs. BAL)
24) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. HOU)
25) Zay Flowers | BAL (at BUF)
26) Diontae Johnson | HOU (at KC)
27) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. LAR)
28) Tylan Wallace | BAL (at BUF)
29) Xavier Hutchinson | HOU (at KC)
30) Robert Woods | HOU (at KC)
31) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at DET)
32) Tutu Atwell | LAR (at PHI)
33) Justin Watson | KC (vs. HOU)
34) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at DET)
35) Anthony Miller | BAL (at BUF)
36) Jordan Whittington | LAR (at PHI)
37) Kalif Raymond | DET (vs. WAS)
38) Devontez Walker | BAL (at BUF)
39) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. LAR)
40) Xavier Smith | LAR (at PHI)
41) Allen Robinson II | DET (vs. WAS)
Commanders at Lions Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: Since the start of 2022, the Lions have a 73.8% win percentage against teams without a true weapon of a runner under center and a 54.5% mark when facing such an asset – Jayden Daniels certainly falls into that second bucket of QB.
QB: On Sunday night, Daniels completed 58.3% of his pressured passes with two scores and zero interceptions (regular season: 46.4% complete with 1.6 touchdowns-per-interception).
Offense: The Commanders scored 62.5% of their drives in the Wild Card Round and are nearly unstoppable when having success even close to that level (13-2 when scoring on over one-third of their offensive possessions).
Defense: Washington posted a 66.7 Def+ grade on Sunday night, their fourth-worst effort of the season. That said, two of those four instances have come against the Buccaneers, making that potentially a tough matchup more than something to fear moving into the Divisional Round.
Fantasy: If you extrapolate Terry McLaurin’s last seven games for a 17-game season:
- 100 receptions (143 targets)
- 1,127 yards
- 19 touchdowns
- 329.1 PPR fantasy points
Justin Jefferson was WR2 in total PPR points this season with 317.5.
Betting: Since Week 11, Washington is 1-3 ATS against the NFC East and 3-1 ATS against the rest of the NFL
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions scored 41 points against the Chargers last season, coming off their bye. They hung 47 on the Cowboys this season and are now coming off another bye week.
QB: Jared Goff finished the season with a 93.2 grade in our QB+ metric, the 11th-best mark in our six years of tracking (second best this season, trailing Lamar Jackson).
Offense: The Lions ranked third in fourth-down conversions during the regular season (22) and tied for seventh in fourth-down conversion rate (66.7%).
Defense: Detroit's offense gets the attention, but its defense ranked seventh in turnover rate and red zone efficiency for the season.
Fantasy: The best games over PPR fantasy expectation during the second half of the season, minimum 20 touches:
- Week 12 Saquon Barkley (at LAR): +127.1%
- Week 16 Jonathan Taylor (vs. TEN): +124.1%
- Week 18 Gibbs (vs. MIN): +114.4%
- Week 17 Gibbs (at SF): +77.9%
- Week 9 Derrick Henry (vs. DEN): +77%
Betting: The Lions have covered 70% of their games since Dan Campbell took over (49-21-1), and they are easily the best mark in the league (the Bengals at 61.6% are the only other team at 58%).
