There’s rarely a dull moment when it comes to the NFL. The weeks leading up to free agency are often a slow period. Not this year. In yet another big trade, the Cowboys shipped Amari Cooper off to Cleveland for a yoyo and a lollipop. How does this impact the dynasty fantasy football value of Cooper as well his new Browns teammates?
Amari Cooper Trade: Fantasy impact on the Cleveland Browns
The Cowboys made it well known to the rest of the NFL that they were moving on from Cooper. With free agency just days away, their leverage in a trade was minimal. The alternative to a trade was they’d get nothing. So, they traded Cooper to the Browns for a fifth-round pick and a swap of sixth-round picks. Calling this a trade is generous. I look at it as more of a donation.
With Cooper now in Cleveland, he joins a barren receiving corps lacking playmakers. Let’s discuss the fantasy impact Cooper joining the Browns will have on him and his new teammates.
Amari Cooper
We start with Cooper himself. For the better part of the past three years, I bashed Odell Beckham Jr. for his poor play in Cleveland. Others claimed Beckham was still good and it was Baker Mayfield’s fault. As it turns out, they were right. Cooper is just one year older than Beckham was when the Giants traded him to the Browns. I fear he is destined for a similar fate.
Cooper is signed through his age-30 season. While the Browns can cut him without any dead cap, we need to operate under the assumption Cooper will remain with the Browns through the 2024 season.
Last year, Cooper averaged just 13.5 PPR fantasy points per game. It was a 1.2 ppg drop from the previous season. Cooper is still good at football, but his fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty is about to crater.
In 2020, Beckham managed just 12.3 ppg in seven games played. 2019 wasn’t much better, with Beckham averaging 12.7 ppg. The Browns are a run-first offense. They had the fourth-highest run rate in 2020 (49.7%) and sixth-highest in 2021 (48.3%).
Beckham did have a 25.6% target share in 2019, his only full season with the Browns. The problem for Cooper is twofold. First, I don’t expect him to command more than a 20-22% target share. Second, 25% of Mayfield’s targets just isn’t as good as 20% of Dak Prescott’s targets. Fantasy managers should view Cooper as nothing more than a volatile WR3 in 2022. In dynasty, he is probably outside the top 36 at this point.
The Browns’ other pass catchers
At the moment, the Browns have Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Anthony Schwartz behind Cooper. It’s not exactly the most terrifying group of receivers. How does the Cooper trade impact their fantasy values?
Jarvis Landry’s fantasy value after the Cooper trade
The most immediate impact of Cooper’s arrival is it increases the likelihood of Landry’s departure. Landry has one year left on his contract. The Browns can release him with just a $1.5 million dead cap hit.
More likely, however, is a trade. PFN Insider Aaron Wilson reported Landry received permission to seek a trade after efforts at a contract restructure failed. Landry seems likely to continue his career somewhere other than Cleveland in 2022.
If Landry remains with the Browns, the 29-year-old possession receiver will be what he’s always been: a floor-based WR3/4. Landry averaged 11.4 PPR ppg in 2021. He did battle injury for most of the season, but his 47.5 receiving yards per game were his lowest since his rookie season.
Landry is still a quality NFL receiver. He will be a useful asset wherever he ends up. From a fantasy perspective, I don’t see him returning to anywhere near the level of production he provided while in Miami. Landry’s redraft value will depend on where he plays, but his dynasty value is nothing more than a WR4/5.
Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz’s fantasy value after the Cooper trade
Enter Cooper. Exit Landry. Peoples-Jones and Schwartz’s values will largely remain the same.
There are a number of folks in the fantasy community high on DPJ. After all, he’s a proven threat downfield. I don’t see it. He’s a glorified Marquez Valdes-Scantling. That is to say, he will pop off for a nice play downfield every so often, but he will never be a reliable fantasy option. If anyone in your dynasty league is high on DPJ, trade him. I don’t even see Peoples-Jones emerging into a startable WR4 or better.
As for Schwartz, there’s still some hope with him, but not much. He was a rookie in 2021 and will be just 22 years old. With that said, Schwartz posted 10 catches for 135 yards and 1 touchdown as a rookie.
On a macro level, rookie wide receivers that fail to reach at least 350 receiving yards rarely end up mattering. Depending on what qualifiers a researcher chooses to use, we’re looking at a sub-5% breakout rate. Schwartz will likely go undrafted in standard-sized redraft leagues in 2022. In dynasty leagues, he’s just an end-of-bench stash.
Austin Hooper and David Njoku’s fantasy value after the Cooper trade
The bigger issue for the Browns’ tight ends is whether there will be three of them again. In 2021, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant all shared the role. Hooper and Njoku were firmly ahead of Bryant, but they still recorded just 68% and 63% snap shares, respectively. Those numbers are well below primary tight end level.
Although Hooper is signed through 2023, the Browns may cut him. They slapped Njoku with the franchise tag and fully intend to work out a long-term deal. That move just doesn’t make sense for a part-time tight end.
Whether Njoku can improve on his 13.4% target share in 2021 will depend on his playing time and role in the offense. Cooper’s presence is not going to have any tangible impact on Njoku’s role.
As for Hooper, if he’s not with the Browns, I don’t have any inside information on where he might end up. Hooper is a capable pass catcher that can gobble up receptions if presented with volume. However, he’s not exactly a dynamic playmaker. The most likely scenario is that Hooper’s fantasy value is minimal in redraft and dynasty.
Impact of the Cooper trade on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt
The running game is also largely unaffected by the trade for Cooper. Cleveland will remain a run-first offense with a game plan centered around Nick Chubb.
The Browns can cut Kareem Hunt without any dead cap, but they really don’t have reason to do so. Chubb and Hunt should once again form one of the best running back duos in the NFL. Consider Chubb the same low-end RB1 he’s been throughout his career, while Hunt is an upside RB2/3.