Those who decided to roll the dice on Alvin Kamara and his three-game suspension heading into the 2023 NFL season were rewarded handsomely with his exceptionally high floor in PPR formats paired with Derek Carr under center.
Is the New Orleans Saints RB positioned for another productive year for fantasy football heading into 2024?
Should You Select Alvin Kamara at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 46th Overall (RB17)
- Elite Pass-Catching Floor: Kamara finished as the RB11 in full-PPR formats in 2023 despite missing three games, thanks to his 1,160 total yards, 75 receptions, and six touchdowns. He ranked as the RB3 on a points-per-game basis, trailing only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams.
- Volume-Driven Production: Kamara led all running backs with 5.7 receptions per game in 2023 and ranked second in receptions (75) and targets (86). His target share (19.3%) and yards per route run (1.73) both ranked inside the top five at the position, highlighting his consistent involvement in the passing game.
- Declining Efficiency: Kamara’s efficiency as a ball carrier showed signs of decline in 2023. His 3.8 yards per carry ranked 45th among running backs, and his 4.5 yards per touch was a career low. At 29 years old, these metrics raise concerns about his long-term durability and effectiveness.
- Red-Zone Competition: Taysom Hill continued to vulture red-zone carries, particularly inside the 5-yard line, where Kamara and Hill each scored three times. This ongoing competition for touchdowns limits Kamara’s upside in that area.
- Improved Offensive Line: The Saints invested in their offensive line by selecting OT Taliese Fuaga with the No. 14 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. This addition could help Kamara improve his rushing efficiency and maintain his fantasy value.
- ADP Analysis: Kamara’s current ADP at the end of the fourth round (No. 46 overall) as the RB17 presents significant value, especially in full-PPR formats. His elite pass-catching ability provides a reliable RB2 floor with RB1 upside, making him a smart pick in the late fourth round.
- Final Verdict: Despite concerns about declining efficiency and red-zone competition, Kamara’s volume in the passing game and the potential for improved rushing efficiency make him an excellent value at his current ADP. He remains a solid fantasy option with top-10 upside in 2024.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Alvin Kamara
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
33) Josh Allen, QB | Buffalo Bills
34) Travis Kelce, TE | Kansas City Chiefs
35) James Cook, RB | Buffalo Bills
36) Jalen Hurts, QB | Philadelphia Eagles
37) Patrick Mahomes, QB | Kansas City Chiefs
38) Alvin Kamara, RB | New Orleans Saints
39) Mark Andrews, TE | Baltimore Ravens
40) Kenneth Walker III, RB | Seattle Seahawks
41) Amari Cooper, WR | Cleveland Browns
42) Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | San Francisco 49ers
43) DJ Moore, WR | Chicago Bears
Alvin Kamara’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Allow us to start with this little stat. Kamara managed to finish as the RB11 in full-PPR formats despite missing the first three games of the 2023 season with 1,160 total yards, 75 receptions, and six touchdowns last year.
This production made him the RB3 on a points-per-game basis with 17.9, which trailed only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams. Additionally, Kamara’s pass-catching production was equally elite, ranking second behind Breece Hall with 75 receptions and 86 targets in 2023. He led all running backs with 5.7 receptions per game.
Including tonight’s game, Alvin Kamara has been targeted more than 171 times since the 2021 season — 4th most among NFL RBs (via @IE_NFL)#JAXvsNO | #PFN365 pic.twitter.com/R03CAiHzRt
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 20, 2023
Yet, not all of the numbers were exactly kind to Kamara’s fantasy production last year. He and Ezekiel Elliott were the only running backs in the league to see 180+ carries and not register a single 20+ rushing play. For some context, De’Von Achane had 21 such explosive rushing plays on 77 fewer attempts than Kamara.
Now, this isn’t exactly all Kamara’s fault. The Saints’ offensive line certainly had its fair share of struggles last year, which was evident when they invested the No. 14 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft in OT Taliese Fuaga.
The former Oregon State product should instantly bolster New Orleans’ unit up front whether Ryan Ramczyk returns for the upcoming season or not. Despite the positive additions to the offensive line, the efficiency metrics certainly deserve a closer look, with Kamara turning 29 years old before the start of the season.
Kamara’s 3.8 yards per carry ranked 45th among running backs and was the second-lowest mark of his career. Additionally, his yards per touch dropped to 4.5, which ranked 37th at the position and was a career-low in that department.
As always, Kamara lost a significant amount of rushing work to Taysom Hill inside the 5-yard line. Kamara saw eight carries to Hill’s seven, with both players scoring three times from that spot.
Admittedly, Kamara’s days as a highly efficient ball carrier appear to be in the rearview mirror, which does create some concern with Hill stealing work in the red zone and potentially expanding the role for Kendre Miller, whom New Orleans invested a Day 2 pick on during the 2023 NFL Draft.
All efficiency and red-zone concerns aside, though, Kamara’s volume of passing work gives him an elite fantasy floor in full-PPR formats. His target share (19.3%) and yards per route run (1.73) both ranked inside the top five at the position in 2023.
Kamara feels more like a volume play than an efficiency play heading into the 2024 season. Still, if the slippery veteran can maintain his elite usage in the passing game while seeing a bump in rushing efficiency behind an improved offensive line, then Kamara can still be a reliable fantasy option with plenty of top-10 upside at the position this year.
Is Kamara a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Aging running backs who have shown symptoms of hitting the age cliff but still have a fantasy-friendly situation can be tricky to pinpoint on draft day.
Kamara’s current ADP falls at the end of the fourth round at No. 46 overall as the RB17 off the board. In full-PPR formats, this feels like stealing.
Sure, Father Time may be on the front doorstep, leaving retirement home pamphlets on his patio furniture. But writing off Kamara’s fantasy value feels a bit premature at this point.
His elite pass-catching floor should provide fantasy managers with a reliable RB2 option with RB1 upside. That makes Kamara’s current price tag of a late fourth-round selection an excellent value.