As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty value of Alvin Kamara.
Alvin Kamara’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
From the day he entered the NFL in 2017, Kamara has been the epitome of reliability in fantasy football. From 2017-2021, he never finished lower than overall RB8. In 2020, Kamara was the overall RB1.
By no means should anything Kamara did in 2022 or going forward discount what he accomplished over the first five years of his career. He is one of the most talented running backs of this generation. Unfortunately, I think his run of dominance might be over.
Kamara still managed to average 14.1 fantasy points per game last season. He finished as the overall RB13. That’s useful, but it’s not what we’ve come to expect from him.
Part of it was obviously not his fault. This was, by far, the worst Saints offense he’s been a part of. His 18.2% target share would be considered amazing for just about any other running back. For Kamara, it marked his third consecutive year of decline.
Additionally, the dip in target share is problematic because the overall passing volume he enjoyed with Drew Brees isn’t there anymore.
Kamara also scored a career-low four touchdowns, which is far below what someone who amassed 1,338 yards from scrimmage should score. With that said, Kamara’s performance on the field was concerning.
MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings
Where Kamara really struggled in 2022 was as a runner. The Saints’ offensive line did him no favors, generating just 1.6 yards before contact. But Kamara also did himself no favors.
He averaged 4.0 yards per carry, the second-lowest mark of his career. He rushed for 15+ yards on just 2.7% of his carries — a far cry from the guy who was No. 1 in the NFL in this metric as a rookie.
Kamara’s evaded-tackles-per-touch rate dropped for a third consecutive year. This was an area he used to excel. Now, he’s outside the top 40 running backs.
While Kamara doesn’t have the same wear and tear most seventh-year running backs have at this point in their careers, he’s still totaled over 1,500 touches. Entering his age-28 season, Kamara is far closer to the end than the beginning or even the middle.
The good news is even after running backs lose their ability to get it done on the ground, they can still excel through the air. We’ve seen backs like Matt Forte and David Johnson maintain quality receiving numbers later in their careers even as their rushing ability diminished. This seems to be the path Kamara is heading toward.
There’s also the matter of Kamara’s ongoing legal case stemming from an incident that occurred around the time of the Pro Bowl in 2022. The expectation is Kamara will face some sort of suspension in the 2023 season.
That puts fantasy managers in a difficult spot. Kamara’s name likely garners more perceived value than actual value. But I don’t think he’s suddenly going to be useless. The perception simply has to change.
Alvin Kamara’s Fantasy Ranking
Kamara should be viewed as a receiving-based RB2 rather than the mid-to-high RB1 he’s been throughout his entire career.
Kamara is signed through his age-30 season. The Saints have a realistic out after 2023 with a $9.2 million dead cap hit. I would lean more on the side of them not cutting him, but I’d be surprised if he played out the remainder of his contract.
Dynasty managers should approach Kamara in the way that extracts the most value. If you have him and someone is willing to pay for the guy he’s been in the past, sell him. If not, keep him. If you don’t have him and can buy him for cheap, do it. If the asking price is as a low RB1/high RB2, pass.
We have Kamara at RB19, No. 60 overall in dynasty Superflex rankings. That’s still too rich for me. I’m very concerned that Kamara’s ceiling for the remainder of his career is what he did in 2023. At the very least, I would be fading Kamara in dynasty startup drafts.