New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been a mainstay at the position for seven years. Now one of the older backs in the league, just how much longer can Kamara be a top-end asset in fantasy football? Is Kamara a good pick in the 2024 Best Ball drafts?
Alvin Kamara’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
For the better part of the past decade, the running back position has been carried by the legendary 2017 class. Unfortunately, they are all now getting up there in age.
Alvin Kamara is now the #Saints all-time rushing TD leader, with 53 in his career! 🔥 #PFN365's RB Rankings: https://t.co/kx75EOk0ug pic.twitter.com/sxA2FkGgAv
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 4, 2023
Heading into last season, there were already questions about how much Kamara had left. After operating as one of the most efficient backs in the league for the first four years of his career, Kamara’s efficiency cratered beginning in the 2021 season.
When it didn’t rebound in 2022, combined with a career-worst 14.1 fantasy points per game average, fantasy managers were justifiably skeptical that the veteran RB wouldn’t continue to decline in 2023.
It’s difficult to evaluate Kamara’s bounce-back year. He averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall RB3. Starting the year with a three-game suspension depressed his ADP, making him one of the best values at the position. Yet, the efficiency did not return … at all.
Kamara averaged 3.9 yards per carry and 4.5 yards per touch. Just 3.3% of his rushes went for 15+ yards. His evaded tackles per touch rate was outside the top 40 for the third straight season. By comparison, he was second in the league in his career-best 2020 season.
With the Saints offense being nowhere near as prolific as it was in the Drew Brees era, Kamara is never getting close to scoring 21 touchdowns like he did in 2020. He only scored six times last season. Yet, he still finished at the top of the position. So … how?
Kamara saw his receiving role noticeably decline in 2021 and 2022. He was being used more as a traditional running back, getting pulled on third downs for the likes of Mark Ingram.
Last year, the Saints restored Kamara’s passing game role. He saw a 19.3% target share, second in the league. He wasn’t exactly efficient, averaging 6.2 yards per reception, but volume is king.
The Saints should try and push the ball downfield more in 2024, but their receiving situation isn’t exactly great behind WR Chris Olave. We could very well be looking at another season of heavy-receiving work for Kamara.
Should You Draft Kamara in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Running back is a young man’s position. It’s always risky to draft a 29-year-old running back. However, receiving skills age better than rushing skills. Plus, it’s not as if Kamara has produced much on the ground anyway. He ran the ball 180 times for 694 yards last season.
If we are to believe Kamara will once again see a target share north of 17%, he is almost certainly going to be a value if his RB16 ADP holds. Much is going to change between free agency and the NFL Draft. However, I don’t anticipate anything happening that would make Kamara cheaper. At worst, Kamara’s price should remain the same.
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Again, investing in old running backs is a gamble. However, Kamara sure looks to be shaping up like a value for the second year in a row. If you’re drafting now, I would be eyeing Kamara in the fifth or sixth round.