With the chance to play with arguably the best quarterback of his career, the sky’s the limit for Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson. As one of the most underrated players in the NFL, what is Robinson’s fantasy football outlook for 2021, and is he a value at his current ADP?
Allen Robinson’s fantasy outlook for 2021
If you were ever going to label receivers “QB proof,” that list needs to start with Allen Robinson. The guy has done nothing but produce his entire career with nothing short of journeymen and perennial backups.
Since 2015, Robinson has averaged 68 receptions on 117 targets for 908 yards and 6 touchdowns. That is including a 2017 campaign where he didn’t complete a game due to tearing his ACL in Week 1.
Take that out, and Robinson’s yearly averages jump to 140.2 targets, 81.6 receptions, 1,086 yards, and 7.4 touchdowns. He has done all of that while catching passes from Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Mitch Trubisky, and Nick Foles.
Last season, Robinson finished sixth in receptions with 102. He saw the third-highest number of targets at 151, which accounted for 25.4% of the Bears’ total and was 41% of their wide receivers’ targets. Robinson was ninth in the league in yards (1,250), and his 102 receptions marked him as just one of six wide receivers to surpass 100 receptions.
All of this came with Foles and Trubisky coming in 20th and 22nd, respectively, in on-target throws at 76.3% and 75.8%.
Robinson finished the season as the WR9 in fantasy, averaging 16.4 points per game (13th) and 1.74 fantasy points per target (55th among WRs with a minimum of 40 targets). It was the second season in a row where Robinson returned WR1 value.
There is a case to be made that Andy Dalton is the best QB he has ever played with in his NFL career. With him, Robinson is a locked-in WR1. When, not if, the Bears transition to Justin Fields, Robinson will be unlocked and possess top-five upside.
Fantasy projection
When you create projections, you have to build a narrative. What is the team in question going to look like in 2021? How do the players mesh, coaches, SOS, losses/additions, etc.? I bring this up for the Bears as there are more questions than answers.
For starters, at some point, there will be a change from Dalton to Fields. Now, this could happen in training camp, but HC Matt Nagy has all but said this is Dalton’s job. More than likely, it occurs in the season once the crowd grows restless in Soldier Field. Once that change is made, the offense completely shifts on its head to feature a big-armed, dual-threat QB.
Issue No. 2 is that Nagy, and even GM Ryan Pace, are likely to lose their jobs. They are both on the hot seat, and it’s hard to envision them surviving the 2021 season. I am already looking forward to Joe Brady coaching Fields in 2022, but that’s a topic for a different time. If Nagy were ousted, it would mean a change in playcalling. Which, believe me, would be a good thing.
Robinson will produce in any situation
The thing is, it almost doesn’t matter for Robinson. No matter who is under center, calling the plays, or sitting in the box, Robinson is the primary weapon in Chicago’s offense. Even with Darnell Mooney likely to break out, Robinson will see over 25% of the target share. Additionally, he will only see his production rise if Fields enters the starting lineup.
I don’t care that his aDOT (average depth of target) has dropped every season since 2015. With Fields under center and taking deep shots, Robinson’s aDOT will only rise and allow him to make cornerbacks look silly downfield.
While early, projections have Robinson set to receive around 145-150 targets, 95-100 receptions, 1,250 to 1,300 yards, and 7 touchdowns in 2021.
Allen Robinson’s ADP
According to Sleeper, Robinson is currently the WR11 with an ADP of 33.8 in half PPR formats. On Fleaflicker, he is also WR11 with a 33.5 ADP. Similarly, in the NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Robinson is the WR12 with a 31.38 ADP.
Should you draft Allen Robinson in 2021 for fantasy?
I know the trend is to wait on receivers. And as a fan of robust RB drafting, I get it. With that said, Robinson is a fantastic receiver and value in the third round. Anytime he slides into the fourth round, I’m smashing the draft button.
Robinson brings a floor that is hard to find, has the potential to lead the NFL in targets, and can finish as the overall WR1 next season. Remember, he is playing for a new contract after the Bears placed the franchise tag on him. We know how players can blow up when generational money is on the line. Robinson is not only one of my favorite receivers to draft, but players overall.