The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Indianapolis Colts WR Alec Pierce’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Pierce build off a quiet but somewhat busy rookie campaign, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Alec Pierce’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Like many things for the franchise, Pierce likely thought his season would go in a different direction. However, despite not being the most fantasy-relevant player available, Pierce had a quietly successful season, which should set him up for a bit of an increase in 2023.
Catching 41 of his 78 targets (14% target share), Pierce posted 539 receiving yards as a rookie with two total touchdowns as he finished as the WR58 overall and WR83 in points per game (5.7 in half-PPR).
Indianapolis could never get anything together, and between the multiple benchings of Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger and Frank Reich being fired, Pierce’s rookie year didn’t amount to much.
That said, there are some interesting things to note about Pierce’s profile that could point to success this season. While he might not be the cleanest route runner, Pierce is a downfield threat with 4.41 speed and size at 6’3″. Indianapolis didn’t maximize Pierce’s abilities, but to their credit, they tried to do more with him than anyone else.
Although his 11.4 aDOT placed Pierce 44th at the position, it was actually ahead of Michael Pittman Jr. Additionally, Pierce also saw 14 deep targets, which is impressive, considering he only had 77 targets altogether. Pierce also accounted for 24.7% of the air yards — a number few other receivers, if any, can match in his draft range.
It’s no surprise that his stats like yards per route run (73rd), yards per target (54th), unrealized air yards (53rd), and fantasy points per route run (89th) aren’t the highest, given the situation and his role in the offense. But with better quarterback play and a season under his belt, Pierce profiles much better in Year 2.
Can Pierce Come Out of the Gates Hot With a New Quarterback?
The most significant consideration is the addition of No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson and the upside he brings to the quarterback position. He is a supreme athlete and has one of the biggest arms in this class.
If you look at the Colts’ depth chart, Pierce is the only one who truly profiles as a field stretcher, whereas Pittman Jr. and even Josh Downs will work in more intermediate to short areas.
At the same time, Pierce’s fantasy potential is directly tied to how quickly Richardson can adapt to the NFL game. That’s a pretty darn big hang-up, given that Richardson’s consistency is nowhere near NFL-ready. But he has the upside of a Cam Newton-level player, even if we don’t see it this year.
I do expect head coach Shane Steichen to implement more of a Philadelphia-style offense built around Richardson with the use of RPOs and play action to suck in DBs and open windows.
Unfortunately, I expect the fruits of that labor to show up in 2024.
My current median projections have Pierce sitting around 45-50 receptions for 650-700 yards and 3-4 touchdowns. It all depends on how quickly Richardson gets acclimated and the two build chemistry.
Should You Draft Alec Pierce This Year?
Whether or not you should draft Pierce for your fantasy football redraft teams in 2023 remains a difficult question. While there is an upside, there are absolutely zero guarantees about what you’ll get.
Luckily, you won’t need to break the bank during your fantasy draft if you want to select Pierce. Based on early ADP reporting, Pierce is being valued as roughly the WR75-78 in drafts with an ADP around 225-240, which would put him toward the back end of the 18th round in 12-team formats. That’s outside the draftable window for some leagues.
Truth be told, I completely understand, as Pierce and this Colts’ passing attack remain a significant unknown. Still, as noted earlier, you’re unlikely to find anyone in his value range with the same type of air yard potential, and if those do connect, especially early, Pierce will quickly outperform his ADP.
What I find even more interesting is the fact that Pierce is being drafted as the Colts’ WR3. Sure, you would expect him to be behind MPJ as the current WR30 in ADP, but Pierce is also going behind Josh Downs on some sites.
I would not want to draft Pierce as anything more than a final selection dart throw that you’re hoping is a bullseye. Odds are, even if we see an early connection between Pierce and Richardson, he likely will not have a high enough target floor or consistency in his outcomes to trust him in your starting lineup in 12-team formats, barring any funky roster constructions.
He does remain one of my favorite late-round targets, but that’s also with me being realistic about the potential outcomes and knowing he could be dropped by Week 5. I do value Pierce higher in Best Ball than redraft and would place him as the WR2 for the Colts ahead of Downs, as the boom-or-bust nature doesn’t push me away nearly as much.