Through his first two NFL seasons, the dynasty conversation surrounding Indianapolis Colts WR Alec Pierce hasn’t changed in a significant way. He’s averaging 15.2 yards per catch with the Colts (73 receptions), which is consistent with the profile he came into the NFL with (17+ yards per catch in all three of his collegiate seasons at Cincinnati).
Young receivers are the lifeblood of successful dynasty teams, and, in that vein, Pierce is an interesting name to explore given the upside that QB Anthony Richardson brings with him to this offense. Is there fantasy football value to be gained here by buying in early and not waiting for a true breakout season?
Alec Pierce’s Dynasty Outlook
Investing in the Colts’ offense is something that I feel comfortable doing, regardless of the format. With all reports out of Indy providing an optimistic view on Richardson’s recovery, we have the rare chance to get exposure to an offense set to trend up.
Alec Pierce’s first career TD?
Game-winner 🔥pic.twitter.com/aaxwNQxFCS
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) October 18, 2022
WR Michael Pittman Jr. is set to test free agency, and while WR Josh Downs had a nice rookie season, if Pittman were to leave town, there’s plenty of room for Pierce to pick up a role that is fantasy-friendly.
I’m as excited about what his 28.2% increase in aDOT (average depth of target) last season could mean for his upside, but even I will admit that there is a path for failure in the short term, and that rostering Pierce will require patience.
MORE: Dynasty Trade Advice — Michael Pittman Jr., Tank Dell, Curtis Samuel
Through two seasons, Pierce owns a 51% catch rate, a rate that makes consistent production a near impossibility. While I believe that number is likely to increase as he continues to develop, the increase in aDOT will naturally come with ups and downs.
With two years left on his rookie deal and entering his age-24 season, Piece is far from a certainty. The idea of his role increasing in an offense set to improve in short order is nice, but it’s worth noting that his 82 routes run with Richardson under center netted just two receptions (his aDOT on Richardson targets was 14.5 yards).
Pierce’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Pierce land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Pierce lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) DK Metcalf | SEA
21) Zay Flowers | BAL
22) Drake London | ATL
23) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Mike Evans | TB
26) Tank Dell | HOU
27) Jayden Reed | GB
28) Deebo Samuel | SF
29) Calvin Ridley | JAX
30) Stefon Diggs | BUF
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | BUF
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE
41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
46) Khalil Shakir | BUF
47) Joshua Palmer | LAC
48) Jahan Dotson | WAS
49) Courtland Sutton | DEN
50) Jakobi Meyers | LV
51) Treylon Burks | TEN
52) Christian Watson | GB
53) Marquise Brown | ARI
54) Mike Williams | LAC
55) Tyler Lockett | SEA
56) Zay Jones | JAX
57) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
58) Quentin Johnston | LAC
59) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
60) Noah Brown | HOU
61) Tutu Atwell | LAR
62) Michael Thomas | NO
63) Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN
64) Kendrick Bourne | NE
65) Adam Thielen | CAR
66) Cedric Tillman | CLE
67) Rashid Shaheed | NO
68) Brandin Cooks | DAL
69) Trey Palmer | TB
70) Darius Slayton | NYG
71) Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG
72) Darnell Mooney | CHI
73) Kadarius Toney | KC
74) Rashod Bateman | BAL
75) John Metchie III | HOU
76) Rondale Moore | ARI
77) Skyy Moore | KC
78) Donovan Peoples-Jones | DET
79) Alec Pierce | IND
80) Mecole Hardman Jr. | KC
Should You Trade Pierce in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Pierce? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
If I’m being asked to choose between Downs and Pierce, my pick remains Downs. His skill set is more reflective of a consistent fantasy producer, and in an offense that I expect to take a massive step forward, the ability to earn those high-percentage targets could turn him into a weekly starter for years to come.
That said, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that both Downs and Pierce can be interesting options sooner rather than later, regardless of Pittman’s status. At the very worst, Pierce is a one-trick pony — like Buffalo Bills WR Gabe Davis — a receiver whom we’ve given multiple opportunities to earn our trust.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
I’m not suggesting that Pierce’s profile is that of a fantasy star, but as an upside Flex option with the ceiling to assume a great role alongside his uniquely gifted quarterback? Sign me up.
Every dynasty roster needs some “flier” types to stash. Most teams will look to the rookie class for that, and that’s fine — I’m simply suggesting that you not lose track of the Colts’ primary deep threat amidst the excitement about the crop of receivers set to take the league by storm in 2024.
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