One of the top wide receivers of his generation for the NFL and fantasy football, Arizona Cardinals WR A.J. Green projects to be a late pick once again as his 2022 fantasy outlook suggests he could have some flashes but possibly lack consistency. With the NFL season and fantasy drafts closing in, what is Green’s fantasy outlook in 2022, and could he prove to be a value at his current ADP?
A.J. Green’s fantasy outlook for 2022
At this point, it seems like everyone wants to write Green off and say he has no value or isn’t even good at football anymore. I share a different opinion.
After the world’s quietest 104-target season in 2020, Green came into Arizona and contributed, even serving as the No. 1 perimeter receiver when DeAndre Hopkins was injured. Playing in 16 games, Green recorded 54 receptions on 92 targets, totaling 848 yards (32nd-most) with three touchdowns. Green finished as the WR41 in PPR scoring, averaging 9.8 PPR/game (52nd).
Sure, that’s not some ridiculous season, but posting double-digit fantasy points in nine of his games, Green was better than being given credit. While he did struggle at times to be the WR1 the Cardinals needed, the depth he brought was valuable, just as it was for fantasy.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Green got off to a quick start in 2022. With Christian Kirk now in Jacksonville, if Green can hold off Father Time in his age-34 season, Green will play a factor for at least the first six games while DeAndre Hopkins is suspended. When Hopkins is back, Green will trail off, but I wouldn’t simply dismiss him away that easily for fantasy in 2022. At least not until we see how he looks out there in Week 1.
How the Cardinals’ depth chart impacts A.J. Green’s fantasy projection for the season
Speaking of the receivers around him, Arizona will look different when the whistle blows in just a few short weeks. For one, Hopkins, as mentioned, won’t be available for the first six games following a suspension due to testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Hopkins had a season to forget due to injuries and needs to show he’s still the receiver we all believe him to be once he’s back out there.
Meanwhile, in a move that shocked everyone on draft night, the Cardinals did some backroom wheeling and dealing and traded for Marquise Brown literally less than a week before the Hopkins’ news broke. With the Ravens missing their top-three RBs, they went very pass-happy, much to the benefit of Brown, who cashed in, both in stats and in money, and is now playing with his former college QB Kyler Murray.
Brown saw a whopping 145 targets in 2021, catching 91 passes for 1,008 yards with six touchdowns, finishing as the WR22 in PPR (25th in ppg). For the first time, Brown saw volume that most WR1s see on their offense. Now in Arizona, in a pass-friendly offense, he could very well duplicate his success, if not exceed it from an efficiency standpoint.
Rounding out the pass catchers is Rondale Moore, the leader for the lowest aDOT last year, Andy Isabella, and TE Zach Ertz. However, their roles shouldn’t impact Green outside of the extra targets they will see underneath as he stretches the field vertically.
Green’s ADP for 2022
With an ADP of 253, Green is coming off the boards as the WR80 in PPR formats at the moment, placing him outside the range of players typically drafted in 12-team fantasy leagues.
Green is also the WR80 In PFN’s 2022 fantasy football redraft rankings, but his overall ranking is a bit higher at 199. I personally have Green as the WR87 and 206th overall player in my rankings. Be sure to check back, as rankings will fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
I can see a path where Green comes out hot and makes some waves for fantasy. My concern is, once everyone is back, does Green disappear? Also, do the Cardinals manage his snaps since he is 34 and does have a track record of missing time?
If you, for some reason, have an injury take place in the first few weeks and Green is playing well, I can see picking him up, but his consistency will always be a concern. Sure, he could end with some solid stats, but guessing when those come might require a crystal ball.