As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Green Bay Packers RB AJ Dillon’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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AJ Dillon’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
In the four NFL Drafts from 2019 to 2022, 14 running backs were drafted in the first or second round. Eleven earned at least one start as a rookie while establishing themselves as their team’s No. 1 RB.
Another (Travis Etienne Jr.) missed his entire rookie campaign with an injury before asserting himself as the bell cow in Year 2. James Cook earned double-digit touches in five of his nine contests (including the postseason) as a rookie while going toe to toe with — and often outplaying — the starter.
First- and second-round selections are statement picks. With few exceptions, they’re engineered to immediately improve the prospects of a franchise — to fill a hole or dramatically upgrade at a position.
Dillon was one of the exceptions — the only member of this 14-RB “club” from 2019 through 2022 who joined a team that didn’t instantly need him. The Packers already had all-world running back Aaron Jones, who’d just led the league in rushing touchdowns (16) and rushing/receiving touchdowns (19). Jones’ career yards per carry stood at a robust 5.0. He was still only 25 years old.
From a fantasy perspective, Dillon was on an island, waiting for his opportunity to step in and step up. His only “useful” performance as a rookie came in a blowout victory over the Titans in Week 16.
Then, in Year 2, Dillon started getting more touches. An injury to Jones opened the door another crack, and Dillon seized the opportunity. He’s not the same runner as Jones. But he established three-down-back credibility, giving him staying power as a fringe weekly fantasy starter. But his development halted last season.
Dillon’s yards per carry dwindled to a middling 4.1, while his broken-tackle rate and yards-after-contact average plummeted. After enjoying zero drops on 39 targets in his first two seasons, Dillon endured a whopping seven drops on 43 targets in Year 3. Not good.
And now, with Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, questions swirl. Will this offense take a step back? Will this switch at the offense’s helm signal a greater commitment to the running game — and, by extension, a larger workload for Dillon?
Well, that’s the problem. It can’t get much larger as long as Jones stands in the way. Dillon has hit 210+ touches in each of his last two campaigns. An extended Jones injury could push him to 275. But really, there’s not much room for growth in this area.
A poor Packers record by midseason could compel them to seek a trade partner for Jones as the team looks to secure draft capital and cap space ahead of a run in 2024 or 2025. And again, this is hypothetical speculation.
In this current environment, Dillon is entrenched as the No. 2 behind Jones. The younger back markedly regressed last year and must re-establish himself as an RB worthy of 12+ touches a game on a team with less room for error and in a division where they could realistically finish anywhere from first to last place.
As a result, Dillon’s fantasy projections remain on par with last season’s or perhaps a bit lower. If things break right, he could surpass 1,000 total yards for the third straight year. The rest comes down to whether he continues to see red-zone work. He’s no longer an ascending fantasy asset. He’s returned to his rookie-year roots as a running back with massive potential who might never realize it.
Should You Draft AJ Dillon This Year?
FantasyData currently lists Dillon with an ADP of RB30. FantasyPros’ composite of industry experts places him in the same spot. This relatively conservative outlook mirrors that of his backfield teammate, Jones, both of whom are about 10 spots off from where they were last summer.
The market assumption is that Green Bay’s offense will struggle with Love at the helm. It’s a fair assessment. After all, Love remains one of the biggest QB unknowns in the league. Candidly, he could flop in his first (and last?) full season as a starter.
Also candidly, the former first-round pick — who’s spent the last three years learning behind an all-time great — might be far better than most people realize.
Explosive offenses can be a boon for fantasy RBs, just as weak offenses can be a major obstacle to weekly fantasy startability. Since Dillon was already a fringe starter in his best days, he surely will find it difficult to elevate his game to the point where he’s a weekly starter.
In that vein, RB30 is both conservative and sensible. It’s also a buying opportunity in light of his bell-cow capabilities. In other words, it’s wise to invest RB30 draft capital on a guy who’s proven he can be a top-10 RB if needed.
“If needed” might come to pass in a season where Jones is no lock to start every game. Using a mid-round pick on a player who could help you win your league in the fantasy playoffs? Sure, why not?
Still, Dillon might be benchable most weeks. So in shallow leagues, he’s not as useful as he would be in deeper leagues, where stashing high-upside RBs is key to winning the title. If you’re in a league where he can safely ride the pine during bye weeks without adversely impacting your weekly win probability, then he’s a must-get at his current ADP.