NFL free agency sent shockwaves through the fantasy football world. One player widely expected to change teams was Green Bay Packers RB AJ Dillon. Yet, notice how he’s still referenced as a Packers RB. After returning to the only team he’s ever played for, where does Dillon’s dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 season?
AJ Dillon’s Dynasty Outlook
For three years, I’ve been waiting for Dillon to overtake Aaron Jones as the Packers’ RB1. Although the Packers finally moved on from Jones, it wasn’t to anoint Dillon as the starter, which is what I expected to happen two years ago.
When the Packers selected Dillon in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Jones was entering the final year of his rookie contract. After averaging 5.3 yards per carry as a rookie, the arrow firmly pointed upward for Dillon’s career. Jones would leave, and Dillon would take over as the RB1 in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense.
Jones signing a four-year extension threw a bunch of cold water on Dillon’s prospects. However, given Dillon’s talent profile and the prolific nature of the Packers’ offense, there was reason to believe both could thrive and be relevant in fantasy, with Dillon eventually taking over once Jones was done.
Unfortunately, and surprisingly, Dillon’s rookie year was his most efficient. While he averaged a passable 10.9 fantasy points per game as a sophomore, Dillon’s YPC dropped to 4.3.
However, he showed a previously unseen proficiency as a receiver, catching 34 balls for 313 yards. As the primary goal-line back, there was reason for optimism. Dillon was one of my top targets in 2022 fantasy drafts.
Dillon opened the 2022 season looking like a league-winner. He handled 10 carries, saw six targets, totaled 91 yards, and scored a touchdown. That was good for 20.1 fantasy points, and it would also be the last time he crested double-digit fantasy points until Week 12.
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In 2023, Dillon’s surprising downward trajectory continued. His yards per carry dropped for the third consecutive year to 3.4, and he saw a paltry 5.7% target share.
Dillon’s evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was outside the top 50, and he had just three carries go for 15+ yards all season. Most concerning, Dillon couldn’t even do the one thing he excelled at — score touchdowns. He had just two all season.
DiIlon’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Dillon sit in the dynasty RB landscape as we look ahead to the next stage of the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, demonstrating where Dillon lands in comparison to other mid-to-late round options at the position.
40) Jonathon Brooks | FA
41) Zack Moss | CIN
42) Tyler Allgeier | ATL
43) Blake Corum | FA
44) MarShawn Lloyd | FA
45) Braelon Allen | FA
46) Jaylen Wright | FA
47) Antonio Gibson | NE
48) Ty Chandler | MIN
49) Keaton Mitchell | BAL
50) Chase Brown | CIN
51) AJ Dillon | GB
52) Bucky Irving | FA
53) Roschon Johnson | CHI
54) Khalil Herbert | CHI
55) Alexander Mattison | FA
56) J.K. Dobbins | FA
57) Ezekiel Elliott | FA
58) Miles Sanders | CAR
59) Tank Bigsby | JAX
60) Elijah Mitchell | SF
Should You Trade Dillon in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Dillon? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
Before the 2022 season, I would’ve said, “Yes, you should absolutely trade for Dillon.” Before the 2023 season, I would’ve still leaned yes, but I’ve been more hesitant. Now, I just can’t endorse him anymore.
The Packers have made their feelings on Dillon abundantly clear. Although they opted to retain him, it wasn’t until after he hit free agency and presumably negotiated with other teams. From the way things played out, it’s fair to deduce that the market for Dillon wasn’t that strong.
Dillon remaining in Green Bay provides stability and a level of predictability with his fantasy value. However, that doesn’t mean it’s a good thing.
The Packers could have opted to roll with Dillon as their starter and signed a complementary piece. Instead, they opted to go with Josh Jacobs — a true three-down back who has proven effective both as a runner and a receiver.
Dillon has had his fair share of opportunities to break out. Just last year, Jones missed six games and was limited in two more. Dillon had his chance to stake his claim to being the Packers’ RB1 of the future. He was unable to capitalize on being the lead back.
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Now, he’s entering his age-26 season with no prospects of an increased role. While Jones at his best is more talented than Jacobs at his best, Jones was never a guy who could handle massive volume on the ground. Jacobs can. It’s fair to say Dillon’s situation paired with Jacobs gives him less upside than with Jones.
At this point, I have given up hope that Dillon will ever be a true lead back, even in a committee. Don’t give any player away for free, but if you can get something useful in return, I would move off of Dillon. Unfortunately, the return you will get in a deal is likely less now than when Dillon’s landing spot was unknown.
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