A.J. Brown’s first two years in a Philadelphia Eagles uniform have generated fantasy football excellence at the wide receiver position with consecutive 1,400+ yard campaigns. This helped the veteran wideout secure a lucrative three-year contract extension this offseason.
With a firmly established fantasy floor in this offense, does Brown have a legitimate WR1 overall case in 2024?
A.J. Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 310.0
- Receptions: 102.5
- Receiving Yards: 1,515.6
- Receiving TDs: 9.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Brown This Year?
When a star receiver gets traded in the middle of his prime, it always comes with uncertainty as to whether or not the player will achieve the same level of success with his new team.
Well, Brown has exceeded any expectations fantasy managers had since the moment he put on an Eagles uniform.
Brown’s Fantasy Production With Philadelphia
- 2023: 106 receptions, 1,456 yards, seven TDs (WR5)
- 2022: 88 receptions, 1,496 yards, 11 TDs (WR6)
Two top-six fantasy finishes confirm Brown is among the elite fantasy WRs entering the 2024 campaign.
Before Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb went on his tear after Week 5, Brown was in the midst of rattling off six straight performances of 130+ yards from Weeks 3-8 — which made him the WR1 overall in fantasy football during that stretch.
Brown’s 30.1% target share ranked sixth in the league, which resulted in a career-high 106 receptions on 158 targets in 2023. His formation versatility was also on display last year, lining up in the slot 24.9% of the time. This matters because new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has helped players with Brown’s versatility achieve fantasy excellence over the last two seasons (Lamb in 2022 and Keenan Allen in 2023).
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Sure, Brown’s yards after the catch per reception dropping from 6.2 in 2022 to 4.5 in 2023 is worth noting, but his skill set still projects as the best potential option to fill this high-volume hybrid slot role in this offense. Brown has a legitimate WR1 overall upside if quarterback Jalen Hurts’ passing production and efficiency can mirror his 2022 campaign in this new offensive scheme.
The only other factor worth mentioning is Brown’s target competition. DeVonta Smith is one of the best secondary receiver options in the league and will certainly continue to demand his fair share of looks in the passing game.
Additionally, players like Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley are capable pass-catching threats in their own right. However, history suggests Brown will continue as the focal point of the Eagles’ passing attack in 2024.
Brown’s average draft position (ADP) sits at No. 9 overall, going off the board in the first round as the WR6. Brown is being drafted right behind Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown in the first round while going just ahead of Puka Nacua and Garrett Wilson.
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Brown has one of the highest fantasy ceilings at the WR position entering the 2024 campaign. The addition of a new offensive coordinator who has helped other capable receivers with a similar skill set generate elite numbers should not be overlooked.
Hurts’ struggles over the back half of 2023 could cap Brown’s ceiling if those issues linger into this year, but Brown’s proven track record of fantasy excellence in Philadelphia makes him a rock-solid WR1 for your fantasy team in 2024.