The 2023 fantasy football season is back and better than ever as drafts fire off across the nation. Now is the time to dive into Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown’s 2023 fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving value on draft day. Can Brown remain amongst the league elite once again, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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A.J. Brown’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It’s rare you see someone get a contract extension, and yet are still undervalued, but after securing a four-year, $100 million contract before the season, Brown was almost still underpaid in 2022.
After averaging 6.17 receptions on 98.3 targets for 998.3 yards and eight touchdowns in his three years with the Tennessee Titans, Brown had a career-best season with the Eagles, catching 88 of 146 targets (eighth) for 1,496 yards (fourth) and 11 touchdowns (second). He was also seventh in deep targets (28), 12th in red-zone targets (16), second in yards after the catch (543) and YPRR (3.01), fourth in yards per target, first in target share vs. man (37.7%), and 16th in EPA.
The WR6 for fantasy, Brown was eighth in points per game with 17.6 PPR on average while accounting for 28.97% of the targets (sixth) and the third-most air yards at 40.84%. These numbers are simply bonkers, and they were in the first year of being paired with Jalen Hurts, meaning that the connection is only getting better with time.
Brown is entering his prime (age-26 season) with an ascending elite quarterback in one of the best offenses in football and has one of the highest individual weekly ceilings at his position. What else could you possibly want?
There are some players whom it’s not worth overthinking, and Brown is one of them for fantasy football. My initial median projections have Brown sitting 76-80 receptions on 125-130 targets for 1,275-1,300 yards with approximately 9-10 touchdowns as an elite fantasy football WR1.
Should You Draft A.J. Brown This Year?
I’m sure you won’t be surprised to hear this, but Brown certainly will not be coming at a discount this year or likely anytime soon in the future. Based on early ADP reporting, Brown is being drafted in the region of WR6 to WR8 across the various scoring systems, typically one of the first few selections in the second round.
That shouldn’t be a shock to anyone, given the upside Brown possesses and the fact that the Eagles if anything, got better. While Shane Steichen left to go to Indianapolis to become the head coach, I don’t see much changing with Philadelphia.
While the Eagles were 11th lowest in passing rate at 56%, they were actually 10th in passing rate over expectation at -0.9%. Sure, they love to run the ball, but the Eagles are also going to spread the offense and make sure their wide receivers are on the field, which was shown last year primarily on first down, where 11 personnel dominated the first-down situation at 72%, which also matched Philadelphia’s shotgun rate.
Throw in the eighth-highest team aDOT and clearly defined roles between Brown and third-year WR DeVonta Smith, and Brown feels like one of the safest early-round wide receivers to target.
While I would still select players like Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Cooper Kupp above Brown, it can be a personal choice between him and Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Stefon Diggs. If you’re in the back half of the first round in your fantasy draft, it won’t be easy to find a better second-round draft selection than what Brown can do for your team.