Tennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown is one of the top receivers in the league entering the 2021 season. He’s caught 122 of 190 targets for 2,126 receiving yards and 20 total touchdowns in two seasons. Can Brown continue to prosper in Tennessee for fantasy football managers with his fantasy outlook and ADP in 2021?
A.J. Brown’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Brown finished as a WR1 in 43% of his 14 active games last year. He’s averaged 7.6 targets, 5 receptions, 76.6 receiving yards, and 18 PPR fantasy points per game. Brown exceeded his targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown totals from 2019 despite playing in two fewer games.
The explosive receiver missed two contests in 2020 with a significant knee bruise. Brown underwent surgery on both knees in January.
New offensive coordinator in the Music City
The Titans finished last season ranked fifth in total yards (385.4) and fourth in points scored (29.6) per game. The only team who averaged more rushing attempts per game than the Titans (32) were the Ravens (34.6).
You may be wondering if this trend will continue with former Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith now the Falcons head coach. Multiple reports suggest that with new OC Todd Downing, it will.
This is the second time in three seasons that head coach Mike Vrabel promotes his tight ends coach to offensive coordinator. The 40-year-old Downing does have experience as an NFL offensive coordinator. He held the role back in 2017 under Jack Del Rio. Given the success the Titans’ offense had, it would be surprising to see Downing deviate from the pass-to-run ratio from last season.
The Titans will likely continue to lean heavily on running back Derrick Henry. Nevertheless, quarterback Ryan Tannehill now has one of the top receiver duos in the NFL with Brown and the newly acquired Julio Jones.
The Titans have a plethora of available targets
Tennessee lost receivers Corey Davis, Adam Humphries, and tight end Jonnu Smith this offseason. This trio combined for 192 targets in 2020.
There are enough vacated targets for Brown and Jones to both be fed. It’s in the realm of possibility that the 24-year-old receiver sets a career-high in targets in 2021. Brown finished last season with only 106 targets, but he averaged an impressive 10.1 yards per target. He ranked second in this metric among receivers who finished 2020 with 100+ targets behind Justin Jefferson (11.2). Furthermore, Brown ended the year ranked 10th with 427 yards after the catch.
The Titans’ offensive line is solid
The Titans also deployed one of the top offensive lines in the NFL in 2020. Tennessee saw extensive improvement from this unit last year. The Titans’ run blocking was exquisite, and they were excellent in pass protection, giving up 31 fewer sacks. There is a chance Tannehill’s pass attempts increases this season.
Will the Titans’ defense be improved in 2021?
Tennessee’s defense, especially the secondary, struggled last season. The Titans allowed the fourth-most total yards (398) and ninth-most points (27) per game. The defense allowed opponents to convert 52% of their third-down opportunities. In addition, the unit allowed offenses to score touchdowns on 69% of their visits to the red zone.
The Titans addressed the defense this offseason, but Downing may need to open up the passing game more in 2021 to position them in more favorable conditions.
Brown’s efficiency, the defensive attention Jones commands, and additional targets place him firmly on the WR1 radar in PPR formats. How high will his ceiling be in 2021?
Fantasy projection
Brown projects for around 140 targets, 90 receptions, 1,300 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns in 2021. He provides you with a mid-range WR1 floor but has the potential to finish as a high-end WR1.
There are concerns with injury for Brown. However, reports seem to indicate he will be ready for the season opener. Even if he isn’t quite ready for Week 1, the signs are good that he should be back early in the year. The biggest concern is can he stay healthy and on the field all season.
A.J. Brown’s ADP
Brown is the eighth wide receiver off the board when you review redraft ADP data from Fleaflicker (ADP of 23.8). This trend is similar in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, where Brown has an ADP of 24.77 as the WR8 overall. Meanwhile, Brown’s ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 22.8.
Should you draft Brown in 2021?
Brown is one of the most electrifying receivers in the NFL and is tethered to a Titans’ offense perfectly constructed to leverage his athleticism and contested-catch ability. Injury concerns are really the only reason to hesitate to pull the trigger on Brown in fantasy drafts right now.