The AFC is home to the NFL’s best team and the top two players on the MVP board. Most believe this is the superior conference due to the firepower at the top, but what about the bottom of the playoff picture?
“Any Given Sunday” is more than a movie, it’s a lifestyle in the NFL. With five teams still in the mix for the final two postseason invites, the last two weeks of the regular season figure to offer plenty of intrigue.
Let’s take a look at the current AFC Wild Card playoff picture and clinching scenarios for Week 17.
What Is the AFC Wild Card Playoff Standings?
The current AFC Wild Card standings in Week 17 are as follows:
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6) Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
7) Denver Broncos (9-7)
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8) Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
9) Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
10) Miami Dolphins (7-8)
The Steelers currently trail the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, but their postseason ticket has already been punched. Whether they win the division or not, Mike Tomlin’s bunch will be heard from in the postseason. The Chargers clinched a Wild Card spot with their dominant win over the New England Patriots on Saturday.
What Are the AFC Wild Card Clinching and Elimination Scenarios in Week 17?
The Chargers already clinched a playoff spot, and the Broncos control their own destiny as well. A win this week could have clinched Denver a playoff spot, but the Bengals pulled off the upset. Still, this loss doesn’t eliminate the Broncos; instead, it simply put the champagne on ice.
The Bengals (vs. Broncos on Saturday), Dolphins (at Browns on Sunday), and Colts (at Giants on Sunday) could have all be eliminated if the Broncos beat Cincinnati on Saturday, but the Bengals pulling off the upset keeps them alive. However, Miami and Indianapolis can still be eliminated if lose on Sunday.
Now, all three will enter the final week of the regular season with at least a mathematical chance to qualify, even if the odds remain stacked against them.
A Look at AFC Wild Card Scenarios in Weeks 17 and 18
The Broncos failed to clinch in Week 16, but they will have a chance to clinch a playoff spot in Week 18 if they defeat the Chiefs. With Kansas City already securing the AFC’s top seed, that season finale doesn’t project as difficult as it looks.
If the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals all lose one game each in Weeks 17 and 18, the Broncos will clinch a playoff spot, regardless of their own results.
The Chargers’ win over the Broncos in Week 16 left the tantalizing prospect of a four-way tie for the three AFC Wild Card spots. For that to happen, the Broncos would need to lose both of their remaining games. Equally, the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals would need to win all of their six combined games.
In that four-team tiebreaker, the Colts and Dolphins would have a leg up. Even once all divisional ties are resolved, the teams would not have enough head-to-head meetings to be used, so we would need to use their conference records. The Colts and Dolphins would be at 7-5 within the AFC, while Bengals would be 6-6, and the Broncos would be 5-7.
The Colts and Dolphins would take the final two playoff spots in this scenario.
That logic continues throughout any multi-team tie we get at 9-8. The Colts are the top dogs, with the Dolphins second. The only tiebreaker that the Colts would not win would be a straight head-to-head with the Broncos, having lost in Denver in Week 15.
The Bengals’ path became much more cut-and-dry after the Chargers won last week. They need to finish in a two-team tie with the Broncos at 9-8. With the win over the Broncos, the Bengals narrowed the gap between the two teams to one game and locked up the head-to-head tiebreaker.
In any tiebreaker scenario, the Colts and Dolphins would both have a better conference record than the Bengals.
The Colts’ and Dolphins’ paths to the playoffs are similar. Since the Chargers won in Week 16, they can only get in with nine wins, and only if the Broncos do not top their record.
At 9-8, the tiebreaker scenarios swing in their favor, as both would have better conference records than the Broncos and Bengals in those situations. With the Broncos being the only common opponent for the Colts, conference records would be all-important in most tiebreakers.
Indianapolis has the upper hand between the two after defeating Miami in Week 7. Therefore, the Dolphins cannot have the Colts involved in a tiebreaker involving just one playoff spot. The Colts would always have the upper hand and knock out the Dolphins.
If there were a scenario at 9-8 involving multiple teams, both the Colts and Dolphins would be in the postseason.
PFN Playoff Probabilities (as of Dec. 27)
- Denver Broncos: 81.7%
- Indianapolis Colts: 7.8%
- Cincinnati Bengals: 7.1%
- Miami Dolphins: 3.4%
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.