The AFC Wild Card picture is at an interesting point. Entering Week 16, there was the potential for a five-way tie for the three spots. There was also a chance that all three spots could be secured by the end of Week 16, but that did not come to fruition.
Entering this week, there were 31,032 possible combinations of game outcomes and, within them, a myriad of playoff scenarios. The number of potential outcome combinations halves with every game played, so we got some clarity on Sunday.
The week kicked off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, which the Chargers won, 34-27. This matchup had ramifications for all six teams still harboring hopes of at least an AFC Wild Card spot. Action on Saturday and Sunday also impacted the AFC playoff picture.
Let’s take a look at the current AFC Wild Card playoff picture, clinching scenarios, and the impact of Week 16’s results.
What Is the AFC Wild Card Playoff Standings?
The current AFC Wild Card standings after Week 16 are as follows:
5) Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
6) Los Angeles Chargers (9-6)
7) Denver Broncos (9-6)
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8) Indianapolis Colts (7-8)
9) Miami Dolphins (7-8)
10) Cincinnati Bengals (7-8)
The Ravens clinched a playoff berth on Saturday with their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The other two teams currently in the AFC playoff spots (Chargers and Broncos) control their own destiny, while the other three teams all need help to play in the postseason.
What Are the AFC Wild Card Clinching and Elimination Scenarios in Week 16?
The Ravens clinched a playoff spot with their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. On Sunday, the Chargers and Broncos had a chance to clinch a postseason berth as well but were unable to.
The Broncos needed the Bengals, Colts, and Dolphins to lose. But all three teams won to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
The Chargers also needed the Colts to lose on Sunday to clinch, so Los Angeles will also have to wait at least one more week to lock up an AFC Wild Card spot.
Accordingly, the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals faced AFC Wild Card elimination scenarios this weekend, but all three teams staved off elimination with their wins on Sunday.
A Look Ahead at AFC Wild Card Scenarios in Weeks 17 and 18
The Broncos and Chargers failed to clinch in Week 16, but they both will have a chance to clinch a playoff spot in both Week 17 and 18 if they avoid losing either of those games.
The Broncos face the Bengals in Week 17 and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18. Both of those could be tough games, especially if the Chiefs are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Chargers’ remaining two games come against the New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders. Both are winnable on paper, but both are on the road and come with their own challenges.
Additionally, if all three of the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals lose one game each in Weeks 17 and 18, the Broncos and Chargers would both clinch a playoff spot, regardless of their own results.
Since the Ravens defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday, they clinched a playoff spot.
The Chargers’ win over the Broncos in Week 16 left the tantalizing prospect of a five-way tie for the three AFC Wild Card spots. For that to happen, the Chargers and Broncos would need to lose all of their remaining games. Equally, the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals would need to win all of their six combined games.
In that five-team tiebreaker, the Colts and Dolphins would have a leg up. Even once all divisional ties are resolved, the teams would not have enough head-to-head meetings to be used, so we would need to use their conference records. The Colts and Dolphins would be at 7-5 within the AFC, while the Chargers and Bengals would be 6-6, and the Broncos would be 5-7.
The Colts and Dolphins would take the final two playoff spots in this scenario.
That logic continues throughout any multi-team tie we get at 9-8. The Colts are the top dogs, with the Dolphins second and the Chargers third. The only tiebreaker that the Colts would not win would be a straight head-to-head with the Broncos, having lost in Denver in Week 15.
The Bengals’ path is simple now that the Chargers have won in Week 16. They need to finish in a two-team tie with the Broncos at 9-8 or a three-team tie with the Broncos and Chargers. They would then beat the Broncos on the basis of a superior conference record (6-6 vs. 7-5). They are the only two scenarios that will work for the Bengals.
The Chargers have a head-to-head victory over the Bengals and cannot finish with a worse conference record. In any tiebreaker scenario, the Colts and Dolphins would both have a better conference record.
The Colts’ and Dolphins’ paths to the playoffs are very similar. Since the Chargers won in Week 16, they can only get in with nine wins, and only if the Chargers and Broncos do not better their record.
At 9-8, the tiebreaker scenarios swing in their favor, as both would have better conference records than the Broncos, Chargers, and Bengals in those situations. With the Broncos being the only common opponent for the Colts, conference records would be all-important in most tiebreakers.
Indianapolis has the upper hand between the two after defeating Miami in Week 7. Therefore, the Dolphins cannot have the Colts involved in a tiebreaker involving just one playoff spot. The Colts would always have the upper hand and knock the Dolphins out.
If there were a scenario at 9-8 involving five or six teams, both the Colts and Dolphins would be in the postseason.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
