After a surprising performance in 2023, the Houston Texans entered this NFL season with drastically higher expectations. The Texans were expected to run away with the AFC South, which they appear on the path of doing so once again.
However, it’s worth noting that the Indianapolis Colts are technically still alive and could potentially win the division. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans have both been eliminated from playoff contention.
Here’s a look at how the Texans and Colts can win the division during the final stretch of the regular season.
Update: The Houston Texans have clinched the AFC South after their win against the Miami Dolphins. Not only did the Texans win, but the Indianapolis Colts lost to the Denver Broncos, cementing Houston’s division title.
Which Teams Are Still Competing for the AFC South Crown?
Houston Texans
The Texans are currently 8-5 and have a two-game lead on the Colts in the AFC South. Thanks to a 29-27 victory over Indianapolis on the road in Week 1, Houston is in a strong position to take down the division crown in back-to-back seasons.
According to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, the Texans currently have a 76.2%% chance to win the AFC South. Houston could actually clinch the division title in Week 15, according to the NFL’s official list of playoff-clinching scenarios.
If the Texans are able to defeat the Miami Dolphins and the Colts lose to the Denver Broncos, Houston will clinch the AFC South title this week. It would mark the first back-to-back division titles for the Texans since the franchise repeated in 2018 and 2019.
Houston must take advantage of the 6-7 Dolphins in Week 15, as the Texans will face much tougher opponents over the following two weeks. According to PFN’s strength of schedule metrics, Houston has the ninth-hardest remaining regular-season schedule in the NFL.
In Week 16, the Texans will travel on the road to visit the Kansas City Chiefs. Then they’ll host the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17. Houston will then end the regular season with its second matchup against the Titans, who already upset the Texans in Week 12.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are currently 6-7 and technically still alive in the race to win the AFC South in 2024. Despite dealing with several injuries to key starters throughout the regular season, Shane Steichen’s team has overcome adversity to remain in the playoff hunt in December.
According to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, Indianapolis currently has a 23.8%% chance to win the AFC South. While the Colts’ odds are rather low to win the division, they have a 36.0% chance to reach the postseason overall.
Unlike the Texans, the Colts have an advantageous schedule down the final stretch of the regular season. According to PFN’s strength of schedule metrics, Indianapolis has the fourth-easiest remaining schedule.
In fact, the Colts’ toughest remaining matchup will be in Week 15 against the 8-5 Broncos on the road. If they’re able to travel to Empower Field at Mile High and escape with a victory, Indianapolis’ odds of reaching the postseason would drastically improve.
Over the final three weeks of the regular season, the Colts will face teams with a combined record of 8-31. If the Texans are unable to secure the division title in Week 15, things could get awfully interesting in the AFC South given Indianapolis’ easy schedule.
