The uninspiring AFC South is a one-bid division, right? Probably.
But with a fair amount of help and a strong finish by the Indianapolis Colts, there’s a chance that two teams from the AFC South reach the postseason. We reveal how, plus lay out the Houston Texans’ path to another division title, in our breakdown of AFC South playoff scenarios.
AFC South Playoff Scenarios | Week 13 Update
The Texans exited Sunday’s action with a two-game lead and a whopping 84.6% chance of making the playoffs, but that’s more of a reflection of the company they keep than confidence in the Texans.
Houston escaped the dreadful Jacksonville Jaguars with a 23-20 win, but are still 3-4 in their last seven games. The Texans would be the AFC’s No. 4 seed if the season ended today, even though five teams in the AFC have a better record.
The Colts, meanwhile, are two games back of both the Texans for the division lead and the Denver Broncos for the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Yet, Indy still have a 31.9% chance of getting in because they have the league’s easiest schedule based on winning percentage and a favorable tiebreaker situation with both Denver and the Baltimore Ravens.
To earn a Wild Card, the Colts need to win out and have Denver lose one other game, or finish 9-8 and have the Broncos, Ravens, or Los Angeles Chargers collapse. They also need to hold off the Miami Dolphins, who both have the same number of losses (seven).
Latest AFC South Standings
- Houston Texans (8-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
- Tennessee Titans (3-9)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
1 p.m. Games Update
Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) def. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) def. Cincinnati Bengals (4-8)
Houston Texans (8-5) def. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
Indianapolis Colts (6-7) def. New England Patriots (3-10)
4 p.m. Games Update
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) def. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Sunday Night Football Update
Buffalo Bills (10-2) def. San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
Monday Night Football Update
Denver Broncos (8-5) def. Cleveland Browns (3-9)
How Can the Houston Texans Win the AFC South?
The Texans could clinch the division as soon as next week. Their magic number is 2 — meaning any combination of three Texans wins or Colts losses will get it done.
The Texans’ chances of winning the AFC South after Week 13 are 76.8%, with a 70.9% chance of doing so as the No. 4 seed.
Houston is in that position because it has already swept Indianapolis, clinching the most important tiebreaker. But the Texans have some challenging games left on their schedule.
They have two games left on the schedule against likely playoff teams (Kansas City Chiefs and Ravens), one game left against teams in the hunt for the No. 1 pick (Titans), and one game left against a team that will likely be playing for its postseason life (Dolphins).
Texans’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: vs. Miami Dolphins
- Week 16: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 17: vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Week 18: at Tennessee Titans
How Can the Indianapolis Colts Win the AFC South?
Since the Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Colts need to finish a game ahead of Houston to capture the division title. That means Indianapolis needs a three-game swing in the division with just five games remaining.
Any realistic division championship scenario for the Colts begins with winning out and the Texans losing to not just the Chiefs and Ravens but also one of the Jaguars, Dolphins, and Titans.
Impossible? Not even close. Indianapolis wins the AFC South in 21.3% of PFN Playoff Predictor’s simulations.
Colts’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: BYE
- Week 15: at Denver Broncos
- Week 16: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 17: at New York Giants
- Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars