The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost their last two games by seven total points, creating a potential opening for the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts to take over the AFC South. But the Texans and Colts failed to take advantage of the Jaguars’ struggles in Week 15, as Houston and Indy suffered their own defeats and remain one game behind Jacksonville in the division standings.
What do the AFC South’s playoff scenarios look like ahead of Sunday’s NFL games? With the help of PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s assess how the Jaguars, Texans, and Colts’ postseason chances could change in Week 15.
AFC South Playoff Scenarios | Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 16 at 8 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
Here are the AFC South standings through Week 15’s Sunday slate:
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
Houston Texans (8-6)
Tennessee Titans (5-9)
Saturday Games Update
Colts (8-6) defeated Steelers (7-7)
Sunday Games Update
Texans (8-6) defeated Titans (5-9)
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
AFC South Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 15
Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Chances
Although the Jaguars are still virtual locks to make the playoffs in some capacity, they’re no longer a certainty to win the AFC South. Still, Jacksonville actually gained ground in the division last week — at least, from a probability standpoint — despite losing to the Cleveland Browns.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) now lists the Jaguars as 85% likely to capture the AFC South in 2023. That’s an increase of 10 percentage points from where Jacksonville was at this point last week.
The Jaguars (8-5) have a one-game lead over the Texans (7-6) and Colts (7-6) ahead of Week 15’s action. Although Jacksonville swept its season series against Indy (giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker), the Jaguars and Texans split, so Houston is a slightly more significant threat within the division race.
If the Jags lose to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, their division odds will drop back down to three in four. And that’s just in a vacuum, without considering what the Texans and Colts might do this week.
If Houston beats the Tennessee Titans, Indy takes down the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Jacksonville loses to the Ravens, the Jags’ AFC South chances will fall to roughly 65%.
Of course, there’s also the flip side, as Doug Pederson and Co. could all but lock up the division crown this week. A Jacksonville victory plus Texans and Colts losses would give the Jaguars a two-game lead with three to play and push their AFC South odds above 99%.
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Regardless of how Week 15 plays out, Jacksonville cannot lose its division lead this weekend. Even if all AFC South contenders emerge with matching 8-6 records, the Jaguars’ 6-5 mark inside the division — the next step in the NFL’s tiebreaking procedures — will keep them in first place.
Here’s the Jaguars’ remaining schedule:
- Week 15: vs. BAL
- Week 16: at TB
- Week 17: vs. CAR
- Week 18: at TEN
Houston Texans Playoff Chances
Weeks 14 and 15 were not all that kind to the Texans, who appeared to be on track to enter the playoffs for the first time since 2019 but have since been dealt a series of blows.
First, standout rookie wideout Tank Dell suffered a season-ending injury in Week 14. This past week, the Texans not only lost to the New York Jets but witnessed quarterback C.J. Stroud go down with a concussion and wide receiver Nico Collins strain his calf.
FPI gave the Texans a 71.% chance of making the playoffs entering Week 15, the highest mark for any AFC that was not leading its division at the time. But that’s down to just 44.1% now that Houston is part of a chaotic mess of AFC Wild Card contenders sporting 7-6 records.
While the Texans are just a game behind the Jaguars in the AFC South, their chances of winning the division are slim. FPI pegs their odds at just 8%, which makes sense given that Davis Mills will likely start in place of Stroud this week and that Houston would need to overtake Jacksonville while simultaneously fending off Indianapolis.
Although there are scenarios in which DeMeco Ryans and Co. could host a first-round playoff game this season, they’re unlikely. Instead, the Texans — the eighth seed in the AFC standings entering Week 15 — will likely need to compete for a playoff berth, and their regular-season finale against the Colts could determine which AFC South team makes the tournament.
Here’s the Texans’ remaining schedule:
- Week 15: at TEN
- Week 16: vs. CLE
- Week 17: vs. TEN
- Week 18: at IND
Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances
The Colts snapped a four-game winning streak by falling to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14, but they’re still the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture.
FPI gives Indy just the fifth-best playoff odds (40.1%) among the conference’s Wild Card contenders, behind the Browns, Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, and Texans but ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Bengals.
MORE: NFL QB Power Rankings Week 15
The Colts will get the chance to knock off another Wild Card hopeful when they face the reeling Steelers on Saturday. If Indianapolis wins, their postseason odds will increase to roughly 65%, but a loss will put their chances at just one in five.
The Colts still control their own playoff destiny. If they win their four remaining games (vs. PIT, at ATL, vs. LV, vs. HOU), they will enter the postseason as a Wild Card club, at worst.
If the Colts go at least 3-1 to close the season, their playoff chances won’t drop below 75% — at least, in a vacuum, without considering the results of other games around the league. If they win three of their last four, and their sole loss isn’t against Houston, their odds won’t slip beneath 85%.
But winning the AFC South will be much more difficult. FPI thinks Indy has just a 7.3% chance of earning its first division title since 2014.
The Jags have a significant advantage over the Colts because they’ve already swept their series against Indy, giving them a head-to-head tiebreaker. The Colts have to finish a game ahead of Jacksonville to claim the AFC South belt.
They would also have to fend off the Texans, but they have a decent chance at keeping Houston at bay. Indianapolis defeated the Texans in Week 2 and will face them again in the regular-season finale. Additionally, the Colts’ divisional record (3-2) is far superior to Houston’s (1-2).
Here’s the Colts’ remaining schedule:
- Week 15: vs. PIT
- Week 16: at ATL
- Week 17: vs. LV
- Week 18: vs. HOU
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
