The AFC South playoff race has developed into one of the more intriguing in the NFL, with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans all sitting at 8-6. As we head into Week 16, all three teams could still win the division, and we could have a three-way tie atop the division at the end of Week 18.
AFC South Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:55 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the Jaguars are the No. 4 seed in the AFC as the current division leaders, while the Colts are the No. 7 seed and the Texans are the No. 8 seed.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Sunday Night Football Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC South entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What are the AFC South Playoff Scenarios for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans?
Entering Week 16, all three teams have an 8-6 record after the Colts and Texans won last weekend, while the Jaguars lost. However, Jacksonville remains atop of the division thanks to a superior head-to-head record. They swept the Colts and split with the Texans for a .750 win percentage in those games, compared to .333 for the Colts and Texans.
That head-to-head lead is unassailable for the Jaguars in a three-way tie. The Colts and Texans play again in Week 18, but a win for either would only get them to a .500 win percentage in those head-to-head games. Therefore, a three-way tie at the end of Week 18 would see the NFL playoff tiebreakers put the Jaguars on top.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
Additionally, Jacksonville would also have the advantage over Indianapolis in the event of a two-way tie based on head-to-head records. If the Jaguars and Texans both win out, then Jacksonville will also have the advantage over Houston based on a would-be a 5-1 divisional record. The best the Texans could achieve in that scenario is 4-2.
Even if the Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans in Week 18, for Jacksonville and Houston to be tied at the end of the season, the Texans would have to lose again. As all of their remaining games come against common opponents with the Jaguars, that would ensure they cannot win a tiebreaker at the “games against common opponents” level.
Houston already sits on four losses against common opponents (Colts, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, and Carolina Panthers), while the Jaguars are at just three (Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, and Cleveland Browns). For those two teams to end up in a tie, the Texans would finish with one more common game loss than the Jaguars.
Those scenarios explain why the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) has the Jaguars with a 64.5% chance of winning the division this season. Meanwhile, the Colts sit at 19.6% and the Texans at 15.9%. Both teams have to finish clear of the Jaguars in winning percentage at the end of Week 18, or Jacksonville will go back-to-back in the AFC South.
The best-case scenario for Indianapolis and Houston is that they enter Week 18 with both teams having a one-game lead over the Jaguars. That will make their Week 18 matchup a winner-takes-all encounter for the division.
That game could prove crucial, whether it is for the division or an AFC Wild Card spot. A win for the Colts would ensure they have swept the Texans. Meanwhile, a Houston win — combined with a Week 17 win over Tennessee — would ensure that the Texans have the tiebreaker over Indianapolis by divisional record.
Can the AFC South Champion Win Take the No. 1 Seed in the AFC?
Entering Week 16, all three teams could, in theory, still take home the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Naturally, the team would need to clinch the AFC South, and they would need to go 3-0.
All three teams could be eliminated from No. 1 seed contention this week in multiple different scenarios.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The Ravens or Dolphins winning or tying in Week 16 will eliminate all three AFC South teams from the top seed. Similarly, anything less than a win for any of the three in Week 16 would eliminate that team from No. 1 seed contention.
The Jaguars and Texans would also be locked out of the bye week if the Bills lose or tie their game against the Los Angeles Chargers. The final elimination angle would be for the Jaguars if the Ravens clinch the strength of victory advantage over them.
What Is the Situation for the Jaguars, Colts, and Texans in the AFC Wild Card?
Currently, the Jaguars are the fourth seed in the AFC, the Colts are seventh, and the Texans are eighth. Thus, there is a huge range of scenarios for the AFC Wild Card. The Browns are the fifth seed at 9-5, the Colts and Texans are at 8-6, the Broncos are 7-7, the Bills are 9-6 after playing Saturday, and both the Steelers and Bengals are 8-7 after Saturday’s games.
Currently, the ESPN FPI gives the Jaguars an 81.1% chance of making the playoffs, the Colts a 58.2% chance, and the Texans 52%. There is a scenario where all three AFC South teams could make the playoffs this year. Two of the teams can feasibly go 3-0, which should be enough to make the playoffs, and if the third goes 2-1, that could be enough to where they each get into the postseason.
There is every chance the Week 18 game between Indianapolis and Houston could decide which team wins the AFC South or makes the postseason as a Wild Card. Jacksonville’s situation is independent of the Texans and Colts to some extent, so they very much have their future in their own hands. They can maybe afford one loss, but making the playoffs with two losses might be tough.
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