The Jacksonville Jaguars shocked everyone by winning the AFC South in 2022, with +700 odds entering the season. In Trevor Lawrence’s third season, the Jaguars are odds-on favorites to repeat as division champions, with a bigger gap between them and the next-best team (Tennessee Titans) than any division in the NFL.
But are we counting out Mike Vrabel and the Titans too soon, and do the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans have a chance with their young quarterbacks?
In this AFC South preview, we break down the betting odds, give out picks and predictions, and more.
Be sure to check out our other divisional odds, picks, and predictions: AFC East | AFC North | AFC West | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
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After a breakout season in 2022, Lawrence should be even better this season with the addition of WR Calvin Ridley. Although he hasn’t played since Week 6 of 2021, if Ridley returns to form, he will give Lawrence a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver.
Elsewhere on the offense, Lawrence has no shortage of weapons in Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram. If the offensive line holds up and the defense can carry its weight, they should be able to continue their momentum from last season, in which they went 7-2 in the second half and won a playoff game.
The Titans were expected to begin a rebuild entering this offseason but are instead making a push to return to the postseason after a disappointing 7-10 season in 2022. QB Ryan Tannehill is healthy and has a new wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins to go along with Derrick Henry.
Their defense, led by All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons, should be one of the best in the NFL this season, but if there’s anything holding this team back, it’s their offensive line. However, we have learned over the years to never count out Vrabel too soon.
This will be the eighth consecutive season in which the Colts will have a different Week 1 starting quarterback, but at least this time, it seems like they have a long-term solution at the position. But how effective will Anthony Richardson be right away as a rookie?
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After his work with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, Shane Steichen is the ideal head coach to pair with the No. 4 overall pick, but this team lacks weapons and has too many holes on defense to have aspirations of a playoff team right away.
The future for the Texans looks much brighter than it did this time a year ago, with the hiring of DeMeco Ryans as head coach and the drafting of both QB C.J. Stroud and DE Will Anderson. Similar to the Colts, however, this team could experience some growing pains with their rookie quarterback and might still be in the early stages of their rebuild.
Live AFC South Odds
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Blewis: Coming off a one-year suspension, Ridley has a lot to prove this season and is in an ideal situation with Lawrence at quarterback in a pass-happy offense. He should emerge as Lawrence’s go-to option right away, as he is easily the most talented wide receiver on the roster.
He is currently the slight favorite to lead the division in receiving yards at FanDuel ahead of Hopkins. However, I think the gap should be far bigger than the odds indicate.
Hopkins averaged 79.7 yards per game last season, but that was mostly driven by volume, as he averaged 7.1 receptions per game and just 11.2 yards per catch. At 31 years old and in a much more run-heavy offense in Tennessee, I don’t expect him to have the same number of targets he had in Arizona or close to the upside Ridley has in Jacksonville.
Pick: Calvin Ridley to lead the AFC South in receiving yards (+250 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Laying juice on a futures bet isn’t exactly something I’d make a habit of doing, but I love me some Jacksonville Jaguars! The Colts can’t get out of their own way, the Texans are in the early stages of a rebuild, and the Titans seem to be hanging onto mediocrity.
As I mentioned in my favorite futures bets article, the Jaguars have their fair share of tough games, but they all come in favorable spots. Lawrence is ready to establish himself as an elite quarterback, and if the defense can build on their success down the stretch of last season, a divisional crown is just the first step of what this franchise wants to accomplish in 2023.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South (-155 at DraftKings)