After being destroyed by the Detroit Lions in Week 13, the Jacksonville Jaguars wreaked some havoc of their own on Sunday by taking down the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans, 36-22. With four games left in the regular season, the Jaguars are two games behind the Titans in the division standings, but they now hold the tiebreaker. Is there a chance Jacksonville will sneak into the playoffs?
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ Playoff Dreams Aren’t Dead Yet
The Jaguars were viewed as darkhorse postseason contenders heading into 2022, but no matter how the campaign closes out, this year will be counted as a win in Jacksonville — and it’s all because of Trevor Lawrence.
Under the leadership of Doug Pederson, Lawrence has shown signs he’s the franchise quarterback the Jaguars were hoping for when they selected him with the first overall pick in 2021.
On Sunday, Lawrence 30 of 42 attempts for 368 yards and three touchdowns. By adjusted net yards per attempt, it was the best game of Lawrence’s career. By QBR, it was the third-best. Only Kirk Cousins posted more expected points added per dropback in Week 14.
With that type of production under center, the Jaguars can be a legitimate threat, but they’ll need some help to earn a playoff berth. Jacksonville looked much better than Tennessee on Sunday, but the Titans’ two-game lead will be tough to overcome.
Realistically, the Jaguars need the Titans to lose at least two of their final four games, and one of those losses must be in Week 18 against Jacksonville. In that scenario, Tennessee would finish 9-8, meaning the currently 5-8 Jaguars would need to win out.
However, the Titans face a relatively tricky schedule to end the season: at Chargers, vs. Texans, vs. Cowboys, at Titans. It seems nearly inconceivable that Tennessee could lose to Houston, but they could go 1-3 in that span. In that case, the Jaguars could afford to drop a game to a non-Titans opponent.
Let’s run through the rest of Jacksonville’s schedule to see how they might fare to end the year.
Week 15 | vs. Dallas Cowboys
After scoring 54 points against the Colts in Week 13, the Cowboys almost suffered an embarrassing loss to the lowly Texans on Sunday. Dallas lost the lead with 18 seconds left in the first quarter and didn’t regain it until only 41 seconds remained in the game.
Still, the Cowboys are clearly a better overall team than the Jaguars. Dallas ranks in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive efficiency.
MORE: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings
Even if Jacksonville can stifle the Cowboys’ run game, they’ll have difficulty covering CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz. And they don’t have anyone on the offensive line capable of stopping Micah Parsons.
If there’s one game on the Jags’ schedule that looks like a definite loss, it’s this one. Then again, if the Texans can hang with the Cowboys, so can Jacksonville.
Week 16 | at New York Jets
Things won’t get any easier for the Jaguars in Week 16. Not only will they face another formidable defensive unit, but they’ll have to go on the road.
The Jets’ defense is No. 6 in DVOA, and they’re equally effective against the run and pass. Since Week 6, New York has given up an average of 15.25 points per game. They’ve allowed a team to score more than 22 points just once in that span and held the high-powered Bills offense to only 37 total points in two contests.
However, the Jaguars could face New York as they deal with an unsettled quarterback situation. Jets signal-caller Mike White took several hard hits against Buffalo on Sunday and was eventually taken to a local hospital for a precautionary evaluation. Depending on how White recovers over the next couple of weeks, Jacksonville might go up against Joe Flacco or (gasp) Zach Wilson.
Week 17 | at Houston Texans
The Jaguars would be a lot closer to playoff contention had they not lost five straight one-score games from Weeks 4 through 8. The most devastating of those defeats was a 13-6 loss to the Texans in which Lawrence had two late chances to lead a game-tying drive.
It’s impossible to say the Texans can’t beat the Jaguars again, especially given that the rematch will take place in Houston. But the Texans’ victory over Jacksonville remains their only win of the entire season!
From a talent perspective, these two rosters aren’t close. Even if the Texans’ defense holds up against the Jaguars’ offense, Houston’s offense is the worst in the NFL. They’re averaging -0.163 points per snap — only the Colts and Rams are even in the same disastrous stratosphere.
Week 18 | vs. Tennessee Titans
Depending on how things shake out, this game could determine the AFC South champion. While either the Jaguars or the Titans could theoretically enter the playoffs as the AFC’s seventh seed, it’s improbable. The division winner will almost assuredly be the AFC South’s only postseason representative.
It’s always difficult to beat a divisional opponent twice in one season, but the Jaguars will benefit from playing at home in the redux. While the next three weeks will determine if this game even means anything by the time it arrives, we can hope for a rematch that would include game-planning and in-game strategy from two excellent head coaches in Pederson and Mike Vrabel.
Jacksonville’s path to the playoffs is certainly narrow, but it does exist. With the Titans headed to Los Angeles next Sunday, Jaguars fans can throw their support the Chargers’ way for at least one week.