The AFC North is officially a two-team race entering Week 16. The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers were eliminated from winning the division thanks to last week’s results, leaving the first-place Baltimore Ravens (11-3) and second-place Cleveland Browns (9-5) vying for the AFC North title.
Will the Ravens be able to hang on while facing an incredibly challenging schedule over the season’s final month? Or can the Browns close ranks? Let’s take a closer look at the AFC North race.
AFC North Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Saturday, Dec. 23 at 6:30 a.m. before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
At the conclusion of Week 16, the Ravens remain the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Browns are No. 5. the Steelers are No. 9, and the Bengals are No. 10.
Saturday Games Update
Steelers (8-7) defeated Bengals (8-7)
Bills (9-6) defeated Chargers (5-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Games Update
Browns (10-5) defeated Texans (8-7)
Falcons (7-8) defeated Colts (8-7)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (11-4) defeated Cowboys (10-5)
Buccaneers (8-7) defeated Jaguars (8-7)
SNF Update
Patriots (4-11) defeated Broncos (7-8)
Christmas Day Update
Raiders (7-8) defeated Chiefs (9-6)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
AFC North Standings
1. Baltimore Ravens (12-3)
2. Cleveland Browns (10-5)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC North entering Week 16. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change both the playoff picture and the current NFL playoff bracket.
AFC North Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 16
The Ravens are two games up on the Browns with three weeks remaining, so it makes sense that their chances of winning the division crown sit at 91.6% entering Week 16, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Baltimore has a chance to clinch the division in Week 16. If Lamar Jackson and Co. beat the San Francisco 49ers on Christmas Day while the Browns lose to or tie the Houston Texans, the Ravens will win its first AFC North title since 2019.
Baltimore could also clinch by combining a tie against San Francisco with a Cleveland loss.
If the Ravens win two of their next three games, they will win the division no matter what the Browns do over the rest of the regular season.
Of course, that might be easier said than done, given that Baltimore is facing the NFL’s most challenging schedule over the final three weeks.
John Harbaugh’s staff has to play the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins — arguably two of the best three teams in the league, with the other being the Ravens — before closing the year with a divisional matchup against the Steelers.
MORE: NFL QB Power Rankings Week 16
If Baltimore loses two games while Cleveland wins out the Texans, New York Jets, and Cincinnati Bengals, the Ravens and Browns would finish the regular season with identical 12-5 records.
The NFL’s first two playoff tiebreakers wouldn’t help in that scenario. Baltimore and Cleveland split their season series and would have matching 4-2 marks inside the AFC North.
At that point, the division would be decided based on the Ravens’ and Browns’ records against common opponents.
Baltimore is currently 8-2 with two games remaining against common opponents, while Cleveland is 7-3 with two remaining.
If the Browns win out, the only way the Ravens could match Cleveland’s record in common games while losing two of their next three is if their only defeat comes to the Dolphins, who the Browns will not play in 2023.
However, that scenario would involve the Ravens losing to the Steelers in Week 18, shifting their division record to 3-3 vs. the Browns’ 4-2, and giving Cleveland the division.
What Else Matters for Ravens and Browns in Week 16?
The most likely scenario for the AFC North is that the Ravens and Browns both make the playoffs while the Bengals and Steelers compete for one of the remaining Wild Card slots.
Baltimore has already clinched a playoff berth.
In addition to trying to win the AFC North, the Ravens are also closing in on the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed, giving them a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.
While Baltimore can’t clinch the top seed this week, it is 75% to enter the playoffs atop the conference standings. A win against the 49ers on Monday night will bring the club’s chances to roughly 90%.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is nearly 90% likely to make the dance, per FPI. Here’s how the Browns can secure a postseason entry this week:
- CLE win + PIT loss/tie + DEN loss/tie + MIA win/tie + BUF loss OR
- CLE win + PIT loss/tie + DEN loss/tie + MIA win/tie + IND loss OR
- CLE win + PIT loss/tie + DEN loss/tie + MIA win/tie + JAX loss OR
- CLE win + PIT loss/tie + DEN loss/tie + IND loss/tie + JAX loss OR
- CLE win + PIT loss + BUF loss + MIA win/tie + IND win + JAX loss OR
- CLE win + PIT loss + BUF loss + KC win + IND win + JAX loss OR
- CLE win + PIT tie + BUF loss + IND win + JAX loss OR
- CLE win + DEN loss/tie + MIA win/tie + IND loss/tie + BUF loss
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!