The AFC North is officially a two-team race entering Week 17. The first-place Baltimore Ravens (12-3) enjoy a two-game lead over the second-place Cleveland Browns (10-5) with two weeks remaining, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals have already been eliminated from divisional contention.
Can the Ravens hold onto their lead over the campaign’s final two weeks, or will the Browns make a late-season run?
AFC North Playoff Chances | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Thursday, Dec. 28 at 6:30 a.m. before Thursday Night Football began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After the Sunday afternoon slate in Week 17, the Ravens have clinched the AFC North (and the AFC’s No. 1 seed) by defeating the Dolphins on Sunday. The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed.
The Steelers are the No. 9 seed in the AFC seed. They’ll need to win in Week 18 and get some help to claim a playoff spot. The Bengals have been eliminated from the postseason.
Thursday Night Football Update
Browns (11-5) defeated Jets (6-10)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Ravens (13-3) defeated Dolphins (11-5)
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Update
Steelers (9-7) defeated Seahawks (8-8)
Chiefs (10-6) defeated Bengals (8-8)
Broncos (8-8) defeated Chargers (5-11)
Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Predictor to predict the rest of Week 17 and see how the playoff field shakes out.
AFC North Playoff Scenarios Entering Week 17
The Ravens are two games up on the Browns with two weeks remaining, so it makes sense that their chances of winning the division crown are 95% entering Week 17, per Pro Football Network’s simulations.
Baltimore controls its destiny. All John Harbaugh’s club has to do to clinch its first AFC North title since 2019 is win one of its two remaining games. Of course, that could be easier said than done, even for a team as talented as the Ravens. The 11-win Miami Dolphins are up next on Baltimore’s schedule, with a divisional tilt against the Steelers on tap to close the year.
If the Ravens drop both games, things could start to get interesting. To win the division, Cleveland needs to finish 2-0 while Baltimore closes 0-2.
In that scenario, the Ravens and Browns would end the season with matching 12-5 records. Baltimore and Cleveland already split their season series, so the AFC North would be decided by the next NFL playoff tiebreaker — division record. If the Ravens lose to the Steelers while the Browns beat the Bengals, Cleveland would finish 4-2 in the division vs. Baltimore’s 3-3 mark.
The Browns will be favored in their remaining games, a home contest against the New York Jets and a road matchup with the Bengals. If they can take care of business over the next two weeks while receiving help from the Ravens’ opponents, Cleveland can still win the AFC North.
What Else Matters for Baltimore and Cleveland in Week 17?
The Ravens have already clinched a playoff berth, while the Browns can do so in Week 17. Cleveland can punch its ticket as soon as Thursday night by defeating the Jets. Win against Gang Green, and the Browns will secure a postseason berth and at least the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs.
MORE: NFL Playoff Bracket 2023
But Cleveland can still clinch a playoff entry even if it loses to Gang Green on Thursday. If any of the following occur in Week 17, the Browns will be in the tournament:
- Steelers lose/tie
- Jacksonville Jaguars lose/tie
- Buffalo Bills lose
- Indianapolis Colts lose/tie and Houston Texans lose/tie
Meanwhile, the Ravens and Browns are still in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed, which comes attached to a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Baltimore remains a heavy favorite to secure the top seed, with PFN’s simulations giving Lamar Jackson and Co. a 69% chance of finishing atop the AFC standings. In Week 17, the Ravens will face the Dolphins, their primary competition for the No. 1 slot. If Baltimore wins, they will clinch the AFC’s top seed.
But the Ravens won’t be out of the mix for the No. 1 seed even if they lose to Miami. In that scenario, Baltimore could still earn a first-round bye if they beat the Steelers in Week 18 while the Dolphins fall to the Bills.
Cleveland still has a shot at the top seed, but its path is extremely narrow. The Browns have to win out, watch the Ravens lose out, and then hope Miami loses to Buffalo in its regular-season finale. Everything would have to fall exactly right for the Browns, which is why PFN’s simulations give Cleveland just a 1% chance of winning the AFC North.
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