The Baltimore Ravens dealt a critical blow to the rest of the AFC North’s chances of winning the division title in 2023 when they held on for an overtime win against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14. That victory moved Lamar Jackson and Co. to 10-6, shifted them into the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture, and made Baltimore the overwhelming favorites in the AFC North.
Will the Ravens be able to hang on as they face an incredibly challenging schedule over the season’s final month? Or will the Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, or Cincinnati Bengals start to close ranks in the division standings?
Let’s take a closer look at the AFC North race, using PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor as a guide to the NFL‘s most competitive division.
AFC North Playoff Scenarios | Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 16 at 7:30 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
Here are the AFC North standings through the Week 15 Sunday slate:
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (11-3)
Cleveland Browns (9-5)
Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
Saturday Games Update
Bengals (8-6) defeated Vikings (7-7)
Colts (8-6) defeated Steelers (7-7)
Sunday Games Update
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC North entering Sunday of Week 15.
AFC North Playoff Scenarios
Baltimore Ravens Playoff Chances
The Ravens are two games up on the Browns and three games ahead of the Steelers and Bengals with four weeks remaining, so it makes sense that their chances of winning the division crown sit at 88.7% entering Week 15, per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Although Baltimore cannot clinch the AFC North title by defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday Night Football, the club can increase its odds of finishing in first place to roughly 93% by winning in Week 15.
And that’s only in a vacuum, without considering the results of other games around the division. If the Browns lose to the Chicago Bears and fall to 8-6, the Ravens’ AFC North odds will shoot to 99%.
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Baltimore also has the best chance of any team in the AFC to grab the top seed and a first-round playoff bye, with their 54% odds more than double that of the next-best Kansas City Chiefs (20%).
Still, it’s worth appraising the Ravens’ schedule, which rates as the most difficult slate in the league over the final four weeks. With matchups against the Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins, and Pittsburgh Steelers still on the docket, Baltimore might not be out of the woods yet.
And if there’s one team that might be able to take advantage, it’s the Browns.
Cleveland Browns Playoff Chances
While the Browns are still viewed as a longshot to surpass the Ravens in the AFC North standings, there is a realistic scenario by which Cleveland could be atop the division by the end of Week 16.
All it would take is the Browns to win their next two games against the Chicago Bears and Houston Texans while Baltimore loses each of its next two (at JAX, at SF). It’s not a crazy set of permutations.
In that scenario, the Browns and Ravens would exit Week 16 with identical 10-5 records and matching 3-2 marks inside the AFC North. The next NFL playoff tiebreaker is record against common opponents, where Cleveland would lead 9-3 vs. 7-4.
Of course, Baltimore would still have two more weeks to reclaim first place, and the idea of everything breaking the Browns’ way for the next month is unlikely. That’s why FPI gives them just a 9.5% chance of winning the division.
However, if Cleveland wins in Week 15 and the Ravens lose, the Browns’ odds of securing the AFC North will leap to nearly 30%. Either way, they’re a favorite to make the postseason one way or another, with FPI pegging their playoff chances at four in five, the best odds for any NFL team not currently leading its division.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Chances
While the Steelers would be in the playoffs as the AFC’s sixth seed if the season ended today, Pittsburgh seems to be trending downward. Mike Tomlin’s club has lost back-to-back games to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots while starting QB Kenny Pickett’s return timeline from ankle surgery remains to be determined.
With a 7-6 record heading into Week 15, the Steelers are three games behind the Ravens in the AFC North with four games to go. Pittsburgh would need a lot to go right to have a chance at the division title, so FPI lists its AFC North chances at just 1.7%.
Glass-half-full person? The Steelers already defeated the Ravens this year, winning a 17-10 game in Week 5 that gives Pittsburgh a head-to-head tiebreaker. Another matchup against Baltimore in the regular-season finale will give the Steelers a second opportunity to gain ground on their division foes.
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If Pittsburgh goes 3-0 over its next three games while the Ravens 0-3, the Steelers could be in first place heading into a regular-season finale that could serve as a de facto AFC North championship game against Baltimore. But Pittsburgh would still have to worry about the Browns usurping them in that scenario.
While the division trophy doesn’t seem realistic for the Steelers, a Wild Card entry might be. But even that isn’t a guarantee, as FPI gives Pittsburgh only a 31% chance to make the playoffs in any capacity.
Cincinnati Bengals Playoff Chances
The Bengals appeared all but eliminated from the AFC playoff conversation after losing Joe Burrow to a season-ending wrist injury and then dropping back-to-back games against the Ravens and Steelers.
But backup quarterback Jake Browning has performed better than anyone could have hoped over the last two weeks, helping Cincinnati to victories over the Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts and forcing the club back into the postseason race.
Does that mean the Bengals can still win the AFC North? Almost certainly not.
Cincinnati is three games behind Baltimore, has already lost to the Ravens twice, and sports a ghastly 0-4 record inside the division. Even if a miraculous set of events allowed the Bengals to match the Ravens, Browns, or Steelers atop the division standings, they’d be hard-pressed to win any tiebreakers.
More than likely, Cincinnati will need to take the Wild Card route into the playoffs. FPI gives them a one in four chance of entering the dance pre-Week 15. If the Bengals beat the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday, their odds will jump to 35%.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!