The AFC North has a reputation for being a close-run division, and rightly so. Just once in the last five years has the division been won by more than two games, although we’ve seen two-game margins in each of the last two years. With Joe Burrow back healthy, the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens are set to scrap for the top spot.
However, the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers won’t make it easy in a division full of fierce rivalries. Let’s examine the current NFC North odds and see what our NFL betting experts have as their top picks for the upcoming season.
What Are the AFC North Odds To Win the Division?
The odds below are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are correct as of Aug. 25.
- Baltimore Ravens +145
- Cincinnati Bengals +145
- Cleveland Browns +550
- Pittsburgh Steelers +800
Top Picks in the AFC North
Whether it’s betting, fantasy football, or NFL fandom, in general, the populace is a very reactionary group. What happened last time? That’s probably what’s going to happen this time.
Yet, time and time again, we see teams go from worst to first. We see teams that were afterthoughts one year and contenders the next.
Heading into last season, the Bengals and Ravens were both considered candidates to win the division. And based on the odds, nothing has changed.
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However, there’s certainly less excitement surrounding the Bengals this year than in previous years under Burrow’s tenure. As long as he’s around and healthy, Cincinnati will be in contention.
The Ravens are obviously a great team, but they can have a very good season while taking a slight step back, allowing the Bengals to capture the division title.
Earlier this year, I was able to snag the Bengals at +175 on Fanatics. That line no longer exists, but +145 is not a bad price.
Pick: Bengals +145
– Jason Katz, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
Katz and I are both on the Bengals to play late into January, and thus, we share similar optimism in their ability to emerge from the most competitive division in the sport.
Since 2016
- All 16 conference winners have allowed under 42% third-down conversion.
- Fifteen of 16 have had a passer rating north of 97.5.
- The average dropback percentage of conference champions was 59.6%.
There isn’t an AFC team that checked all of those boxes last season, but there is one that was much closer than the rest and had a great excuse for not checking that middle box: Cincinnati.
Burrow missed seven games last season, and you could very much argue that he was at less than full strength for the contests he did start. The Bengals’ overall roster strength is highlighted in our NFL Power Rankings, and I’m in agreement.
What do the Dolphins, Lions, Texans, Bengals, and Chiefs all have in common? They all have explosive offenses and were among the top five defenses in quarterback contact rate. Due to the strength of the division, this team will be battle-tested, and because of that depth, they get a last-place schedule.
Pick: Bengals (+145)
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Betting and Fantasy Analyst
As I stated in the AFC picks, going last here hurts. We are all in agreement that the Bengals are a better value play here to win the AFC North.
I’ll start by saying I do not believe in the Browns or the Steelers to win the division. They might both be content for Wild Card spots as they did last year, but as we saw, neither belonged. I don’t think Cleveland or Pittsburgh got much better, either, with both still having QB issues.
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When healthy, the Bengals might be the best team in the AFC. Other than Tom Brady-led teams, no one else has beaten Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason except Burrow and the Bengals (he almost did it twice).
This current version of the Bengals won back-to-back AFC North titles in 2021 and 2022 and advanced to the AFC Championship Game both times. The Ravens won’t be pushovers, but Cincy might be better.
Pick: Bengals (+145)
– David Bearman, Chief Content Officer