Battes for the NFL‘s top conference seeds — and a resulting first-round playoff bye — are typically tight heading into the final month of the regular season, and this year’s races are no different.
With four weeks left in the 2023 campaign, the AFC’s top seed is still up for grabs. The Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Miami Dolphins all have a realistic chance at the No. 1 slot, while the Jacksonville Jaguars can squint and see a path to first place in the conference standings.
AFC No. 1 Seed Scenarios | Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 17 at 8 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games impacting the AFC No. 1 seed are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Sunday’s slate in Week 15, the Ravens remain the AFC’s top seed.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Dolphins (10-4) defeated Jets (5-9)
Chiefs (9-5) defeated Patriots (3-11)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Sunday Night Football Game Update
Ravens (11-3) defeated Jaguars (8-6)
Keep reading below to see the AFC No. 1 seed scenarios for each team entering Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
How Can the Baltimore Ravens Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Ravens already controlled their own No. 1 seed destiny heading into Week 14, but last weekend’s results could hardly have been more favorable for Baltimore.
While Lamar Jackson’s club pulled out an overtime win against the Los Angeles Rams, the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Jaguars all lost in Week 14. The Ravens (10-3) now have a one-game lead over Miami (9-4) and a two-game lead on Kansas City and Jacksonville (both 8-5).
Baltimore has played as well as nearly any team in the NFL this season, but it’s worth taking a look at their remaining schedule, which ranks as the most difficult slate of closing games in the league:
- Week 15: at JAX
- Week 16: at SF
- Week 17: vs. MIA
- Week 18: vs. PIT
The Ravens will have to fend off two of their No. 1 seed rivals — the Jags and Dolphins — over the next three weeks while also playing the San Francisco 49ers, currently the top seed in the NFC.
Although Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth, the No. 1 seed is not on the table this week. There are still too many permutations by which the club could fall out of the top slot, especially with upcoming games against Jacksonville and Miami.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
What’s the Ravens’ ideal scenario this week? Baltimore’s odds of grabbing a playoff bye are at roughly 64% entering this weekend’s action.
But if they beat the Jaguars, the Chiefs lose to the New England Patriots, and the Dolphins fall to the New York Jets, the Ravens’ chances will increase to roughly 90%.
How Can the Miami Dolphins Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Dolphins somehow coughed up a 14-point to the Tennessee Titans with three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter on Monday, dropping a critical game that appeared all but over.
But fear not, Miami fans: Despite that unbelievable loss, the Dolphins still control their No. 1 seed destiny despite falling a game behind the Ravens in the AFC standings.
Miami and Baltimore will face each other in Week 17 in a game that could decide which club gets to take a break after the regular season. If the Dolphins win out, and the Ravens finish 3-1 with their sole loss coming to Miami, both teams will finish 13-4. Mike McDaniel’s club would be the No. 1 seed thanks to its head-to-head win.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs remain a clear threat to the Dolphins, even though they’re one game behind Miami in the standings. That’s because Kansas City took down the Dolphins in Week 8 and now holds a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Here’s Miami’s remaining schedule:
- Week 15: vs. NYJ
- Week 16: vs. DAL
- Week 17: at BAL
- Week 18: vs. BUF
How Can the Kansas City Chiefs Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Patrick Mahomes is no stranger to the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Chiefs have landed a playoff bye three times since Mahomes entered the NFL (2018, 2020, 2022), winning the Super Bowl twice in those three seasons.
Grabbing the top seed will be more challenging this year, given that Kansas City is two games behind the Ravens, one game behind the Dolphins, and tied with the Jaguars.
Baltimore already has 10 wins, two more than Kansas City, while the two clubs will not face each other this season. As such, the Chiefs must match the Ravens’ record and finish with a better mark within the conference. Baltimore is currently 6-3 in the AFC; KC is 6-2.
The Chiefs will also need to win one more game than the Dolphins down the stretch to secure the top seed, but they won’t need to worry about conference record with Miami. Kansas City already defeated the Dolphins in Week 9, giving Andy Reid’s team a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Here’s the Chiefs’ remaining schedule:
- Week 15: at NE
- Week 16: vs. LV
- Week 17: vs. CIN
- Week 18: at LAC
Are the Jacksonville Jaguars Still Competing For the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
While the Jaguars are still likely to make the postseason in some capacity, their chances of winning the No. 1 seed in the AFC took a substantial hit over the past two weeks, when Jacksonville lost to the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns.
MORE: Surprise Super Bowl Contenders
Trevor Lawrence’s squad has eight wins, tying them with Kansas City in the AFC standings. But the Jaguars already lost to the Chiefs in Week 2, so they’ll need to finish one game better than KC to usurp them in the No. 1 seed race.
The Jags will also have their chance at knocking the Ravens down a peg. Jacksonville is due to face Baltimore in Week 15, allowing them to match records and earn a head-to-head tiebreaker within the conference.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars won’t play the Dolphins in 2023. As such, they’ll either need to finish with a better record than Miami or post identical marks while managing a better record inside the AFC.
A lot has to go right for Jacksonville to get a playoff bye, and the club’s path only got tougher when Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 14.
Here’s the Jaguars’ remaining schedule:
- Week 15: vs. BAL
- Week 16: at TB
- Week 17: vs. CAR
- Week 18: at TEN
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
