The end of the NFL regular season is always more exciting when a race for the conference’s No. 1 seeds still exists, if only because a tight battle for a first-round playoff bye prevents the league’s elite teams from resting their players near the end of the year.
With five weeks left in the 2023 campaign, the AFC’s top seed is still up for grabs. The Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs all have a realistic chance at the No. 1 slot, while the Jacksonville Jaguars can squint and see a path to first place in the conference standings.
With the help of PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s run through the four first-place ADC teams and determine who has the best shot at the No. 1 seed.
AFC Clinching Scenario Results | Week 14 Update
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
Bills (7-6) defeat Chiefs (8-5)
Browns (8-5) defeated Jaguars (8-5)
Titans (5-8) defeated Dolphins (9-4)
Baltimore is now the AFC’s No. 1 seed after Week 14
How Can the Miami Dolphins Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Two teams in the AFC control their own destiny with respect to the No. 1 seed, and the Dolphins are one of them. Miami’s 9-3 record has them tied with Baltimore atop the AFC standings, but the Dolphins’ conference record (6-2) temporarily gives them the top seed over the Raven (6-3).
Baltimore is the other AFC club that controls its own fate — because the Dolphins and Ravens will face each other in Week 17 in a game that could decide which gets to take a break after Week 18.
If Miami wins out, it will secure the No. 1 seed. Otherwise, Tua Tagovailoa and Co. might need some help.
The Chiefs remain a clear threat to the Dolphins, even though they’re one game behind Miami in the standings. That’s because Kansas City took down the Dolphins in Week 8 and now holds a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Here’s Miami’s remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. TEN
- Week 15: vs. NYJ
- Week 16: vs. DAL
- Week 17: at BAL
- Week 18: vs. BUF
How Can the Baltimore Ravens Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The good news for the Ravens is they will control their chances at the No. 1 seed. Win out, and they’ll secure a playoff berth in January.
Baltimore has played as well as nearly any team in the NFL this season, but it’s worth taking a look at their remaining schedule, which ranks as the most difficult slate of closing games in the league:
- Week 14: vs. LAR
- Week 15: at JAX
- Week 16: at SF
- Week 17: vs. MIA
- Week 18: vs. PIT
The San Francisco 49ers and Dolphins are two of the league’s best teams, while the Jacksonville Jaguars are nearly there, assuming Trevor Lawrence (ankle) can play in Week 15. The Rams are still competing for an NFC Wild Card entry, while divisional games against the Pittsburgh Steelers are always challenging.
In an ideal Baltimore scenario (Ravens win, Dolphins and Chiefs lose), its odds of grabbing the top seed would increase to better than 50%. Worst-case scenario? The Ravens’ chances drop to just 10% following their loss and win by Miami and KC.
How Can the Kansas City Chiefs Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
Kansas City has grabbed the AFC’s No. 1 seed three times with Patrick Mahomes under center (2018, 2020, 2022) and won the Super Bowl twice in those three seasons.
This year, the Chiefs are again in contention for the top seed and a first-round playoff bye, but they’ll need some assistance. Holding an 8-4 record heading into Week 14, KC is a game behind Miami and Baltimore in the conference standings.
Baltimore already has nine wins, one more than Kansas City, while the two clubs will not face each other this season. As such, the Chiefs must match the Ravens’ record and finish with a better mark within the conference. Baltimore is currently 6-3 in the AFC; KC is 6-1.
The Chiefs will also need to win one more game than the Dolphins down the stretch to secure the top seed, but they won’t need to worry about conference record with Miami. Kansas City already defeated the Dolphins in Week 9, giving Andy Reid’s team a head-to-head tiebreaker.
Here’s the Chiefs’ remaining schedule:
- Week 14: vs. BUF
- Week 15: at NE
- Week 16: vs. LV
- Week 17: vs. CIN
- Week 18: at LAC
Are the Jacksonville Jaguars Still Competing For the AFC’s No. 1 Seed?
The Jaguars are still the favorites to win the AFC South, but the club’s surprising loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13 damaged their chances of earning the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Jacksonville has eight wins, tying them with Kansas City in the AFC standings. But the Jaguars already lost to the Chiefs in Week 2, so they’ll need to finish one game better than KC to usurp them in the No. 1 seed race.
The Jags will also have their chance at knocking the Ravens down a peg. Jacksonville is due to face Baltimore in Week 15, allowing them to match records and earn a head-to-head tiebreaker within the conference.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars won’t play the Dolphins in 2023. As such, they’ll either need to finish with a better record than Miami or post identical marks while managing a better record inside the AFC.
A lot has to go right for Jacksonville to get a playoff bye, and the club’s path only got tougher when Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain last week.
Here’s the Jaguars’ remaining schedule:
- Week 14: at CLE
- Week 15: vs. BAL
- Week 16: at TB
- Week 17: vs. CAR
- Week 18: at TEN
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
