In the seven-team NFL playoff format, only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a first-round bye. The AFC’s home-field advantage race currently has a major front-runner, but there are two other teams that are still alive. Who will end up No. 1 in the AFC?
With the help of PFN’s Playoff Predictor, let’s run through the various scenarios and top-seed odds for the three teams with the clearest paths to claim the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
Updated AFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Race
The Kansas City Chiefs are in the driver’s seat in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. PFN’s model currently gives the Chiefs a 76.7% chance of securing the top spot.
While the Chiefs could not clinch the No. 1 seed in Week 15, they could continue to pull further ahead of the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers, the only two teams with a realistic path to challenging Kansas City.
With another win, that is exactly what Kansas City did. The 13-1 Chiefs maintained a two-game lead over the 11-3 Bills and have a three-game lead over the 10-4 Steelers, the latter of whom lost in Week 15.
The Chiefs are in a great position to land the No. 1 seed as long as they don’t drop multiple games down the stretch. Kansas City faces Pittsburgh in Week 17, which could be an important matchup in terms of seeding. However, after their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Steelers are all but formally eliminated from top-seed contention, with only a 1.2% chance according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Can the Buffalo Bills Clinch the AFC No. 1 Seed?
If the season ended today, the Bills would be in the No. 2 seed and host the No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card Round. However, according to PFN’s Playoff Predictor, Buffalo still has an 20% chance of landing the No. 1 seed — they’ll just need some help.
The Bills’ impressive win over the Detroit Lions in Week 15 improved their chances to get the top seed. However, they still need some help to catch up to the Chiefs.
Fortunately for Buffalo, their final three games are very easy, as they face the New England Patriots twice and the New York Jets at home. Additionally, Patrick Mahomes suffered an apparent ankle injury during their win against the Cleveland Browns. If the QB were to miss any sort of time, the AFC’s No. 1 seed could be wide open.
Basically, the Bills need to win out and the Chiefs need to drop two. Can that happen? Well, the chances are a lot higher if Mahomes misses time. The Chiefs need to play two playoff teams next in the Houston Texans and Steelers. Then, they finish the year with another playoff team and division rival, the Denver Broncos.
Imagine a world where the Broncos and Chiefs face off in Week 18 with the AFC’s top seed on the line. I am sure Sean Payton would love nothing more than to ruin the Chiefs’ No. 1-seed dreams.