With two weeks left in the 2023 NFL season, the AFC East playoff scenarios are intriguing, with both the Miami Dolphins (11-4) and Buffalo Bills (9-6) still very much in play to win the division. The Dolphins may have a two-game lead, but with the two teams set to play in Week 18, things could change very quickly if they fail to clinch it this week.
Let’s take a look at the AFC East playoff scenarios and how both the Dolphins and Bills could yet take the crown. Additionally, let’s examine the scenarios for the Dolphins to finish the season with the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
AFC East Playoff Scenarios | Week 17 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 31 before Sunday’s game began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the weekend.
After the Sunday 1 p.m. ET slate in Week 17, the Dolphins and Bills are tied atop the AFC East. Miami and Buffalo will face each other in Week 18 in a game that will decide the division champion.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Update
Ravens (13-3) defeated Dolphins (11-5)
Bills (10-6) defeated Patriots (4-12)
Be sure to check out our NFL Playoff Predictor to predict the rest of Week 17 and see how the playoff field shakes out.
What Are the AFC East Scenarios for the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills?
Simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor give the Dolphins around an 80% chance of winning the division this season, with the Bills taking it just under 20% of the time.
The Dolphins only need to win one of their final two games but have to face the current No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens in Week 17 before facing Buffalo in Week 18.
A win in Week 17 would leave the Dolphins a minimum of two games ahead of the Bills with only one game to play. Naturally, even with a Week 17 loss, a win in Week 18 against the Bills would be enough to stop them from drawing level with the Dolphins on overall record and taking the division based on NFL playoff tiebreakers.
Of course, we should not discount the potential for the Dolphins to win the division even if they lose this week. The Bills face a New England Patriots team that has won two of its past three games and defeated the Bills 29-25 back in Week 7. If Buffalo does not defeat the Patriots this week, the Dolphins’ result will be irrelevant in terms of the AFC East standings.
Additionally, Miami could win the division if it ties with Baltimore in Week 17. That would be enough to put the Dolphins 1.5 games ahead of the Bills, with only one to play.
However, we always take scenarios involving a tie a little more lightly, given there has not been one this season, and they occur infrequently.
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From the Bills’ perspective, perfection is the order of the day if they want to win the division. If Buffalo goes 2-0 and Miami goes 0-2, the Bills will win the AFC East.
Buffalo defeated Miami 48-20 back in Week 3, giving them a critical head-to-head advantage over their rivals. Another win for the Bills in Week 18 would give them a 2-0 head-to-head advantage over the Dolphins in the first playoff tiebreaker.
Can the Dolphins Still Clinch the No. 1 Seed in the AFC?
While the Bills need perfection to clinch the AFC East, the Dolphins realistically need the same if they are to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
If Miami beats the Ravens (12-3) in Week 17, it takes control of the conference entering Week 18. The Dolphins would then know that a win over the Bills in Week 18 would ensure them the No. 1 seed regardless of any other results.
A tie between the Dolphins and Ravens would mean Miami needs some help in Week 18. The Dolphins would remain a game behind Baltimore but with a chance at the No. 1 seed if they win and Baltimore lose in Week 18.
In that scenario, both teams would be 12-4-1, but Miami would have a superior conference record at 8-3-1 to the Ravens at 7-4-1. Again, we are talking about the first tie of the season occurring, but given the two teams could be reasonably well-balanced, it is at least a possibility in Week 17.
Can the Bills Clinch a Playoff Spot in Week 17?
There are 14 scenarios for the Bills to clinch a playoff spot in Week 17, but all of them require some help from other results.
Five of the scenarios come into play if the Bills beat the Patriots, and nine are possible if the Bills and Patriots tie. There is no Week 17 playoff-clinching scenario for the Bills involving a loss to the Patriots.
The basics of it are that if the Bills win, they need a combination of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, and Indianapolis Colts to fail to win. The simplest scenarios involve two of those teams failing to win, and the most complex would require three of them to fail to win.
If Buffalo ties, it would need at least three other results to go their way. The majority of them would require at least two teams to lose and the third team to either lose or tie. Let’s examine the 14 playoff-clinching scenarios in full for the Bills this week:
- Buffalo win + Pittsburgh loss or tie + Cincinnati loss or tie OR
- Buffalo win + Pittsburgh loss or tie + Jacksonville loss or tie OR
- Buffalo win + Pittsburgh loss or tie + Houston loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo win + Cincinnati loss or tie + Jacksonville loss or tie OR
- Buffalo win + Cincinnati loss or tie + Houston loss or tie + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Cincinnati loss + Jacksonville loss OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Cincinnati loss + Houston loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Cincinnati loss + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Jacksonville loss + Houston loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Jacksonville loss + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Pittsburgh loss + Houston loss + Indianapolis loss OR
- Buffalo tie + Cincinnati loss + Jacksonville loss + Houston loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Cincinnati loss + Jacksonville loss + Indianapolis loss or tie OR
- Buffalo tie + Cincinnati loss + Houston loss + Indianapolis loss
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!