Somewhat surprisingly, the AFC East has come down to a winner-takes-all battle on Sunday Night Football. While the AFC East playoff scenarios for Week 18 are simple, the ramifications for both the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins could be massive.
AFC East Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 7 at 8:55 a.m. before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 18, the Bills have won the AFC East. The Dolphins are now the No. 6 seed.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Titans (6-11) defeated Jaguars (9-8)
Sunday Night Football Update
Bills (11-6) defeated Dolphins (11-6)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC East entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the AFC East Playoff Scenarios for the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins?
Simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor sum up the situation pretty well in that it gives the Dolphins a slightly greater than 50% chance of winning the division and the Bills a slightly lower than 50% chance.
Miami has the home-field advantage, but Buffalo is the hotter team entering Sunday.
The simple fact of it is that whoever wins takes the division will finish as the No. 2 seed in the AFC. With that comes a home playoff game on Wild Card Weekend and the chance to host at least two playoff games. It also puts them in a position to host the AFC Championship Game if the Baltimore Ravens stumble.
The Bills enter Week 18 a game behind the Dolphins when it comes to their overall record. A win in Week 18 would see both teams finish with identical records, but the Bills will have a crucial advantage in terms of the NFL playoff tiebreakers. That’s because Buffalo defeated Miami back in Week 4 and would have a 2-0 head-to-head record.
The good news for the Dolphins is that if they lose, they’re still guaranteed a playoff spot. With a loss, Miami would finish as the No. 6 seed in the AFC and book them a date with the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium on Wild Card Weekend.
Unfortunately for the Bills, things are not quite so cut and dry. If they win or tie, Buffalo is in the postseason. A win makes them the No. 2 seed, while a tie would put them at sixth place in the conference. However, a loss could see Buffalo miss out on the postseason altogether following Saturday’s results.
MORE: Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Scenarios and Chances
The Bills will know the situation when they kick off against the Dolphins. If the Jaguars win, it’s essentially all or nothing. A loss would drop Buffalo to eighth in the conference and outside of the postseason picture.
If the Jaguars fail to win earlier in the day, the pressure comes off a little because then the Bills can still make the postseason with a loss. A combination of Jacksonville failing to win with a Bills loss will see Buffalo sitting as the seventh seed and facing the Dolphins again next week at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Bills’ scenarios for making the postseason after Week 18 are as follows:
- Buffalo defeats Miami and wins the division
- Buffalo ties with Miami and finishes as the No. 6 seed
- Buffalo loses to Miami, Jacksonville loses to Tennessee, leaving the Bills as the No. 7 seed
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
